If we look at Gold monthly charts, we can see celarly the price curve still trade above the "kumo" and it means they're still in the uptrend. The Tenkan Sen already crossed bellow the Kinjun Sen; the price curve already crossed the Kinjun Sen, but the Kinjun Sen is still flatener.
The Chikou Span now pointing down and hit the price curve, it means the downtrend situation seems will be held; by chance the price curve already got reversal movement after they touch the support 1330.11 near with the Fibo 50% at 1309.80 already given by the Chikou Span, and we should note that lately Chikou Span (26 Candle price before)had a close position at 1410.90 and the present candle close 1421.18; it means the running price now its more greater then before, and this will be a sign of the downtrend weakness.
And one thing should be noticed too, this situation happened above the Kumo, so all the SELL signals we can take as weak signals in the Monthly Charts.
In the Weekly charts it seems that the downtrend movement is a bit restrained because the Tenkan Sen and the Kinjun Sen still have a "Death Cross" and are bellow the "Kumo". Howeber, they still have a flat line.
The Chikou Span is already making a new Support and Resistance at 1403.63 and the 1608.56 near at the Fibs 23.6 at the 1631.80; both levels seem to be the playing field for the Gold for a while.
However, the probability for going down to test the Monthly 1330.11 support who created bye Chikou Span at the Monthly charts its more greater than to test the Kinjun Sen at 1537.78, however the chance to test the Kinjun Sen level is still open, but the probability its small because all things happened bellow the "Kumo".
In the Daily charts we can see clearly the price curve now trying to test the 38.2% level at 1453.76 right at the Tenkan Sen line; however the Tenkan Sen and the Kinjun Sen are still flat but the Chikou Span is pointing up and all this situation still happens bellow the "Kumo"; it means at the Daily Charts the downtrend situation have got a small reversal BUT if the downtrend momentum gets back, GOLD will test back again to the Chikou Span Monthly Support at 1330.11 and if they can break, they will test the support already provided by the Monthly Fibo 50% @ 1309.80.
CONCLUSION :
The situation in the Big picture is that GOLD is still in the uptrend, BUT there is a weak reversal probability, and a trader who already has a short position should keep track of the reversal signal in the smaller time frames. Good luck.
Best regards,
Arief Makmur
Official Analyst of InstaForex Companies Group
InstaForex Companies Group
http://instaforex.com
Email : [email protected]
Yahoo Messenger & Skype : Arief.ifx_jakarta
blog.mt5.com/arief
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