Friday deals presented some adrenaline buzz to the pair EUR/USD. At that moment, when any one did not plan and hope for another great shoot of the Euro against the dollar, moreover it was Friday, but the Euro again surprised everyone, and as a result of a trading day rose 106 points against the dollar (open 1.3134, close 1.3240). The volatility against the dollar amounted 187 points (low 1.3113, high 1.3300).At the opening of the Asian session the dollar began to strengthen against the Euro, and showed the low at 1.3113, but by mid trading session the Euro steadily started to gain new positions and at the opening of the European session was higher, than the opening price on 50 points. In general, all the trading day was in the sunward motion.Now let's analyse all what happened on Friday 24. At 8 a.m. GMT Ifo Business climate Index in Germany was published, which had shown the increasing to 83.70, this impacted the Euro very positively, and received new strength the bulls continued their crusade against the dollar. Following this report came the information about home sales on the secondary housing market in the USA in March 2009, according to which annual sales of homes fell by 3% to 4.57 million units. In February 2009 the annual sales of homes on the secondary housing market in the USA stood at 4,71 million units. These data were also against the dollar, which had already lost a lot of positions at that moment, since the opening of the trading day. So, the only positive moment for the dollar was the report about new housing starts in the USA at 2 p.m GMT, which had shown a decline versus last month, but was higher, than analysts expected. After these macroeconomic data the dollar tried slightly to strengthen, and it could do that, but its increasing was considered explicitly, as the moment for the next buying of the European currencies, and the closing of the hour was still in favor of the bulls. The decreasing of the Euro by the end of the trading day on Friday was predetermined by the fixation of long positions before the weekend.The technical view, the pair EUR/USD is trading at the strong resistance level near 1.3290 – 1.3300. The breaking through of this resistance level on daily graphs will open the way to 1.3344,1.3390 and 1.35 - - , but let's look at things objectively. The price is already close enough to the upper board of the downward trend channel from 23.03.09, though I think, that the test of this level is inevitable, everything will not be so simple, as it seems. The indicator GP_Major Trend (a red line) shows at a good upward trend, but a blue line goes down and rushes to the intersection, which is the first warning sign of the end of the correction movement. However, until the line is not cross, it is early to think about the opening of the medium – term short positions. The signal blue line FATL also shows us at the first end of the correction movement.Regarding the medium term, the pair closed above 100 daily exponential moving average at the daily graphs, which went at 1.3227, suggesting about gaining forces and continuing of the ascending movement.The outcome of all these will be the one. Although the movement in a short – term is upward, a little motion downwards, in order to tame bulls' ardour, is necessary. The pair will decrease, likely, or will be in the float for some time.Today's recommendations (a short — term trading):I recommend to open short positions at the close on the time frame of the pair below 1.3149, with the target – T/P 1.3090, and S/L 1.3186.I recommend to open long positions at the close of the pair above the level of 1.3233, with the target to T/P 1.3287, and S/L 1.3183.
In the medium term we are waiting for the confirmation of the downward trend by the pair.