EUR / USD pair (4H)
On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the euro after the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. The end of the quotations from the Fibo level of 23.6% at 1.1187. A little later, the growth had begun which supported the presentation by Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman, on the outcome of the Fed meeting. In his speech, Powell was neutral. He noted that "downside risks" are growing but the state of the economy remains stable. The greatest uncertainty and the threats related to the trade wars accordingly that are strongly supported by Donald Trump. The Fed is ready to respond to changes in the economic situation and use the tools of monetary policy. Approximately, similar words were said a day before by Mario Draghi at the ECB Forum in Portugal. They mean that the Fed is not preparing in the truest sense of the word to lower rates, but admits that this can happen. In the current vote of all members of the monetary committee, only the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, voted in favor of reducing the key rate. At the same time, several committee members admit a rate cut in 2019. Thus, the growth of the pair can be continued on June 20 in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% at 1.1277. The end of the exchange rate from this level will work in favor of the American currency and the beginning of the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2% at 1.1237.
The Fib net formed on extremums from March 20, 2019 and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR / USD pair and recommendations for traders:
The EUR/USD pair closed above the Fibo level of 38.2%. Thus, I recommend buying today the euro with the target of 1.1318, a protective order below the Fibo level of 50.0% if the closure occurs above 1.1277.
GBP / USD pair (4H)
The GBP/USD pair also performed a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and started the growth process against the news from the Federal Reserve System and started the growth process. It completed the close above the correction level of 76.4% at 1.2661. However, today, June 20, a bearish divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator, which allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a resumption of decline in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% at 1.2437. In addition to the divergence factor, the resumption of the fall allows you to calculate the general news background. For the sterling pound, the main theme of Brexit remains as well as all political changes in parliament and for this, undoubtedly, the main topic of no new data are currently available. Today, traders should pay attention to the Bank of England meeting, which can leave the key rate unchanged similar to the Fed, but his chairman, Mark Carney, could put the same pressure on the sterling pound as Powell did against the dollar yesterday. Thus, we do not recommend skipping this event.
The Fibo grid formed on extremes from January 3, 2019 and March 13, 2019.
GBP / USD pair (1H)
On the hourly chart, the pound-dollar pair consolidated above the correction level of 61.8% at 1.2663 and continues the growth process towards the next Fibo level of 76.4% at 1.2701. The rebound of the pair from the level of 76.4% allows us to expect a reversal in favor of the American dollar and a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 61.8%. Closing the quotations above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the likelihood of further growth in the direction of the next level of correction 100.0% at 1.2762.
The Fibo grid formed on extremums from June 7, 2019 and June 18, 2019.
Forecast for GBP / USD and recommendations for traders:
The GBP/USD pair completed growth to the level of correction at 76.4%. I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.2663 and a Stop Loss level above 1.2701 if the rebound from the level of 76.4% is achieved. I recommend buying the pair today with a target of 1.2762 if it closes above the Fibo level of 76.4% and with the Stop Loss level under 1.2701.
