EUR/USD is testing the resistance line of the ending diagonal we have seen define the trading-action over the last month. A clear break above resistance at 1.1830 will confirm that circle wave 4 is complete and circle wave 5 towards the long-standing target at 1.2763 is unfolding.

That said, we also need to be aware, that as long as resistance at 1.1830 is able to cap the upside, the risk for an unexpected break below key support at 1.1704 remains in place. We don't favor this outcome, but it can't be excluded yet, but hopefully it can soon.

Trading recommendation:

Buy a break above 1.1830 for a rally towards 1.2763. Stop below 1.1752