4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -25.6625
In the past year, the pound sterling has X days too often. At first, these were the days when Theresa May's voting was conducted, then the days when the UK had to carry out the exit from the EU, and the days when Theresa May declared a vote of no confidence. Today is the day when the name of the new leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will become known. This will happen in just a few hours, at 11:45 London time. We have repeatedly noted that the probable victory of Boris Johnson for the pound sterling is rather a negative fact than a positive one. Jeremy Hunt's victory would have been more appropriate. However, in the context of the latest information about the blocking of the possibility to carry out a "hard" Brexit without the consent of the Parliament, the complete refusal of the European Union from new negotiations and the proposal to postpone Brexit to a later date, the victory of any candidate is not a negative factor for the British currency. This is because the Prime Minister cannot decide the fate of the country alone, and the Parliament, as we well understood in 2019, rejects all the unwanted proposals. "Pleasing" – has not yet been reported. Thus, from our point of view, Boris Johnson can promise an exit on October 31 though till October 30. If the Parliament rejects this option, and the probability of this is high, then Brexit will be postponed again. Thus, for the pound, the most important thing now is that the next event, which creates uncertainty, will be completed as soon as possible. Then there will be chances for at least a slight strengthening of the pound/dollar pair.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2451
S2 – 1.2421
S3 – 1.2390
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2482
R2 – 1.2512
R3 – 1.2543
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair has overcome the MA. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the pound sterling again with the targets of 1.2421 and 1.2390. During the announcement of the election results, it is recommended to be more cautious in the bidding.
It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2543 and 1.2573 not earlier than the price consolidation above the moving average line. In this case, the bulls will get another chance to form an upward trend.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
