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09.09.2019 07:28 AM
Overview of GBP/USD on September 9th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson intends to implement Brexit before October 31, despite the ban of Parliament

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 59.6807

Throughout the past week, almost every day, we wrote that the new Brexit transfer is very beneficial to the pound. Based on the GBP/USD pair movement chart, the participants of the currency market believe the same. The record growth of the pound against the US currency by 4 cents confirms the joy of the market for the defeat of Boris Johnson in Parliament. Over the weekend, we also wrote that the British Prime Minister would be waiting if he refused to comply with the will of Parliament. Thus, everything went to the fact that Johnson will still contact the EU leaders and will ask for the postponement of the date of Brexit on January 31, 2020. And the European Union, in turn, will approve this request, as it has never concealed its reluctance to implement a "hard" Brexit. However, like a bolt from the blue, the words of the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, were heard: "We are not going to carry Brexit forever. The British need to decide what they want and let us know." Thus, either the EU's position regarding Brexit's permanent transfers has changed, or Brussels has realized that it will not work out with Boris Johnson, or the EU itself wants to quickly close this endless process and is preparing for a possible trade war with the States. Also, an option is not ruled out in which the opinion of the French Foreign Minister does not correspond to the general opinion in the political circles of the European Union. However, if the French Foreign Minister expressed the general opinion of the EU leaders, this is very bad for the UK and for the pound.

In the government of Boris Johnson, there are rumors that the Kingdom will leave the European Union, despite the ban of Parliament. That is, Johnson does not care about a possible lawsuit in the Court, the possibility of which is already being considered by a group of politicians from different parties who foresaw the possible moves of the Prime Minister in the future. It is difficult to say what exactly Johnson expects for failure to comply with the ban on secession from the EU without a "deal". Is this possible in principle if the Parliament adopted and approved the law on the impossibility of this outcome? It turns out that if Johnson does Brexit on October 31, it will be a direct violation of the law. What does it have to do with the article "petty hooliganism". Violation of the law on an issue that could lead the country into a financial crisis for many years. It is difficult to imagine what Johnson would expect as a result of such unauthorized actions. Therefore, we hope that information from the government is still irrelevant.

Today, September 9, unlike the EUR/USD pair, the British currency can trade very actively. In the Foggy Albion, data on GDP for July (according to experts, the figure will grow by 0.1% m/m), as well as industrial production for July (expected to decrease by 1.1% y/y and 0.1% m/m) will be released today. As you can see, the forecasts are not too optimistic, it is possible that the fundamental background today will not be on the side of the British currency. However, the pound can help out the good mood of traders who are still bathed in waves of optimism regarding the transfer of Brexit to January 31. It is the good mood of the currency market on Brexit that can make traders ignore weak reports on GDP and industrial production. However, the GBP/USD currency pair is already being adjusted, which means that at the beginning of the trading week, traders are not ready to immediately continue buying the pound. Thus, the correction today may continue to the moving, above which the current upward trend and the long-awaited good prospects of the pound remain.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2268

S2 – 1.2207

S3 – 1.2146

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2329

R2 – 1.2390

R3 – 1.2451

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a downward correction. Thus, it is recommended for traders to wait for the Heiken Ashi indicator to turn up, which will indicate the end of the correction round, and resume buying the pound with targets at 1.2329 and 1.2390. It is recommended that you return to sales of the British currency no earlier than fixing the pair below the movable.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
الخبير التحليلي لدى شركة إنستافوركس
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