EUR/USD – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of falling towards the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1106), after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator and rebound from the level of 1.1164. The rebound of the euro/dollar quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the euro currency and the resumption of growth towards the level of 1.1164. Closing the pair's rate below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.1024). There are no new emerging divergences on October 23 in any indicator.

There are still a few economic reports on the markets. All of them do not attract the attention of traders at all, as they are not important. Thus, traders continue to monitor third-party information, simultaneously closing the purchase of the euro ahead of the ECB meeting, which will be held tomorrow.

Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde, who will take the post of chairman of the ECB in just a week, meanwhile, spoke out about Brexit. Since from November 1, she will be concerned about the problems of the recession of the European economy, Ms. Lagarde is interested in the fact that the negative impact on the already weakening EU economy was as small as possible. Against this background, Ms. Lagarde believes that Brexit, especially "No Deal", will harm the UK economy, the EU economy, and the world economy. She also said she was deeply saddened by the fact that the British are moving away from the Europeans. According to Lagarde, the fall in welfare will be felt by many countries in the eurozone, as well as around the world.

Meanwhile, the big question is, what methods of economic stimulus will Ms. Lagarde herself use from November 1, 2019? It is no secret that the European Union continues to actively fight low inflation, which for 8 years of Mario Draghi's rule has not reached the target level of 2.0%, despite the fact that Mr. Draghi followed the classic economic models, which imply an increase in inflation, if the labor market is in a healthy state, unemployment is falling, and wages are rising. Recently, Mr. Draghi even urged European countries to spend more to spur inflation, saying also that the economy needs new trends to move inflation from the "dead" point. From November 1, the ECB will again begin to raise the EU economy in cash, however, not yet with the help of "helicopter" money, and buy various bonds from the open market. The rate has been in the "red" for a long time, and inflation, as the latest reports say, continues to slow. Thus, Christine Lagarde will arrive directly "from the ship to the ball", or rather "from the ball to the crisis".

What to expect today from the euro/dollar currency pair?

On October 23, traders will be able to count on the rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0 %, which will allow them to look again towards the purchases of the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1164. However, I believe that a further fall in the European currency is more likely, as tomorrow's news and economic reports are unlikely to cause demand for the EU currency. Most likely, the US dollar will be beaten again as a leader.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.1024 if the close is made below the level of 1.1106 (100.0% Fibonacci). A stop-loss order above the level of 1.1106.

I recommend opening new purchases of the pair with the target of 1.1232 and the stop-loss order below the level of 1.1164 if the closure is performed above 1.1164.