EUR/USD – 1H.
On November 4, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process all day to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1746). However, in general, I can not yet say that the nature of trading has become completely the same as before the election. Traders expected to see Joe Biden win the election, as absolutely all the sociological studies of recent months spoke in favor of the Democrat. And according to the latest data, a record number of Americans have voted for Joe Biden in recent decades, and the turnout in the elections has also become a record. So it's clear that Americans were interested this year to go to the polls and vote like never before. At the moment, Biden has almost 4 million more Americans than Trump, and he has received 264 electoral votes, while his opponent has only 214. Admittedly, Trump was predicted to suffer a more crushing defeat. However, at the moment, it remains to determine the winner in four more states: Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. And a total of four of these states can bring victory to Donald Trump. Such strong delays in counting votes are due to the high interest of Americans in voting by mail this year. Thus, not all letters with bulletins were received at their destination yet. This means that the presidential race is still going on, and traders are already quite calmly waiting for it to end.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes returned this night to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). A new rebound of the pair from this level will again work in favor of the US dollar and a new fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1496). However, just like yesterday, I recommend paying more attention to the hourly chart, as it is now possible to track changes in the mood of traders more quickly and react to them.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a new rebound from the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825), after which the quotes began and continue to fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566). However, more attention now needs to be paid to smaller schedules, hourly, and 4-hour.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair, but in the long term. In the short term, a drop is preferable.
Overview of fundamentals:
On November 4, business activity indices for the service sector were released in the European Union and America. It was weak in Europe and strong in America. However, the effect of the strength of the US index was obscured by the ADP report on changes in the number of employees, which was much worse than traders' expectations.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US- number of primary and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (13:30 GMT).
US - FOMC decision on the basic interest rate (19:00 GMT).
US - unemployment rate (19:00 GMT).
US - FOMC press conference (19:30 GMT).
On November 5, vote counting will continue in the United States, and the results of the election are not yet fully known. Also, the Fed will sum up the meeting in the evening, followed by a press conference. This is also a very important event.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was quite informative. The most important category of non-commercial traders got rid of 12 thousand long contracts and 1 thousand short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, speculators do not believe in the further growth of the European currency and get rid of more purchases of this currency. This process has been going on for several weeks, thus, a trend is emerging. Over the past two months, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators has been steadily falling, while the number of short contracts has been growing slightly. Thus, I am inclined to the option with a further fall in the euro currency quotes.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders:
Today, I recommend opening sales of the euro currency with targets of 1.1715 and 1.1676, if the rebound from the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1746) is completed. Purchases of the pair will be possible with targets of 1.1778 and 1.1746 if the quotes consolidate above the level of 76.4% on the hourly chart. Traders' activity may remain high today.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
