Globally, the upward trend continues to develop. However, the wave pattern is getting more complex. The trend section, which began on September 23, now consists of five waves, however, it is not impulsive and may already be completed. Thus, the construction of a new three-wave section of the trend could have been over, and so, a more complex downward wave pattern may have formed. So far, everything looks exactly like this.
The waves of a - b - c - d - e of the upward trend is clearly shown in the smaller time frames. Hence, this section may already be completed. If so, then the quotes will continue to decline from the current levels with targets located near the 29th figure and below. the section, which began on September 23, could take a more extended shape. Meanwhile, I'm more poised for the scenario of building a series of downward waves. The scenario with complicated structure remains a possibility. A lot will depend on the news background.
Here, the news background is very contradictory for the pound. On the one hand, there is no positive news from the UK as well as from the USA. Nevertheless, the pound continues to enjoy fair demand in the currency market, although London and Brussels cannot agree on a trade agreement in any way and there is already a lack of time. The transitional period of Brexit ends on December 31 of this year, that leaves less than a month and a half for everything. However, sources close to the negotiation process claim that there is some progress in the negotiations, but do not say what exactly. However, they also report that there are serious disagreements on the most important issues, such as the fishing issue. Thus, it is still not clear whether the parties will be able to agree or not.
According to British media reports, David Frost told Boris Johnson that a deal could be agreed by next Tuesday. However, some media outlets also report that the issue of fishing in British waters and the issue of fair competition and state support are still unresolved. The British Prime Minister claims that the country will leave the EU in any case, with or without a deal. Thus, I can assume that the markets are really full of optimism about the future of the agreement at this time. At least, there is hope that London and Brussels will find a common solution and the pound relies on this. But a failure of negotiations may lead to a drop in demand for the pound and the implementation of the current wave markup.
Conclusions and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair continue to build the upward trend, but its final wave could have already been done. Thus, it is suggested to monitor the instrument sales carefully for each signal of the MACD indicator "down". A new successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level will indirectly indicate that this pair is ready to decline with goals around calculated levels of 1.3010 and 1.2864, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the peak of wave e will lead to complication of wave pattern.
