The main currency pair of the Forex market started the new trading week with the same thing as it ended the previous five-day trading week - with a downward trend. The sentiment of market participants on Monday was quite cautious and was far from a strong risk appetite. Against this background, the US dollar was in demand, fueled by the increased yield of US Treasury bonds, as well as the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Although the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve are unlikely to make any drastic changes in the monetary policy of the US Central Bank, investors prefer to wait for the results, decisions, and comments of the Fed. Let me remind you that this month's meeting of the Federal Reserve will be expanded, that is, in addition to the decision on rates, updated economic forecasts will be published, and then a press conference will be held by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Given the totality of all these events, market participants may well find a driver for a strong good price movement, however, its direction will become clear after the publication of new forecasts of the leading world economy, as well as the rhetoric of the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve. Since we are talking about fundamental events, today it is recommended to pay attention to the index of business sentiment from the ZEW institute for the eurozone, which will be published at 11:00 London time. Later, starting at 13:30 (London time), a large block of macroeconomic statistics from the United States is planned, where the most important indicators are retail sales and industrial production. Now it's time to look at the EUR/USD price charts to see if there have been any changes in the technical picture and whether changes need to be made to the previous trading recommendations.
Daily
This chart clearly shows that the attempts of the euro bulls to return the quote above the broken support level of 1.1952 failed. This factor may indicate a high probability of a subsequent decline. However, even Friday's minimum values at 1.1909 could not be updated and the players could not finish trading below this level. Thus, the daily range in which the euro/dollar is currently trading can be defined as 1.1989-1.1909. If it were not for the Fed meeting, it would be quite possible to consider the exit from the designated range as a pointer to the further direction of the main currency pair of the market, and so we have to take into account and consider both positioning options.
H4
At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a fairly narrow corridor. Nevertheless, despite the recent upward exit from the brown descending channel, the latest lows were shown in the downward direction from 1.1989 to yesterday's 1.1967. Usually, this factor indicates the weakness of the bulls and their inability to move the quote in the north direction. As expected the day before and even earlier, the main trading idea for EUR/USD looks like sales, which are better planned for short-term rises in the strong and important price zone of 1.1950-1.2000. If bearish patterns of candlestick analysis appear in the designated area on this or hourly charts, this will be a signal for opening short positions on EUR/USD. That's all for now.
