Analysis of Thursday trade:
EUR/USD on 30M chart
EUR/USD was trading higher on Thursday. Before resuming the upward movement, the pair was trading sideways for half a day. Thus, from yesterday's high near the level of 1.1912, the price has corrected down by 52 pips which is considered a moderate correction. The main thing is that the MACD indicator has managed to reach the zero level and generated a strong buy signal today which is circled in the picture. In fact, the MACD indicator had formed a buy signal even earlier during the nigh time. So, naturally traders should not have followed it. Yet, the daily buy signal allowed us to open long positions at the level of 1.1880. After that, the price went up by another 40 pips and broke through the 1.1912 level at the first try. Thus, novice traders could have taken profit near the level of 1.1912, 30-40 pips at Take Profit. It was also possible to leave long positions open as the price has broken through 1.1912 and could continue to move upwards. In the third scenario, you should set Stop Loss below the level of 1.1912 in case a downward pullback begins at night. If you have followed the first two scenarios, then you have gained profit, congratulations. No important reports were published during the day. Only about an hour ago, Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell began his speech which extended the US dollar's fall that continued throughout the entire US trading session.
EUR/USD on 5M chart
Now let's take a look at the 5-minute time frame. Several signals were also formed here during the day. At the beginning of the European session, the price rebounded from the level of 1.1878 which is no longer relevant as the price has passed it several times during the day. We have recently marked the level of 1.1893 as it was not there during the day. Thus, two false signals in the morning could have brought novice traders about 15 pips of loss. However, the price has made a clear rebound from the level of 1.3864 (now it is the level of 1.3862) which was a rather strong buy signal. At that time, the level of 1.1878 was no longer relevant, and the level of 1.1893 was not yet on the chart. Thus, the closest target for long positions was the level of 1.1912 which was eventually tested. This deal could have brought beginners about 43 pips of profit. However, this trade coincided by 90% with a trade on a 30-minute time frame, so there was no need to duplicate it. In total, novice traders could have earned 20-25 pips in today's trade.
How to trade on Friday:
On Friday, we recommend trading upwards on the 30-minute time frame as the upward trend currently continues. A new ascending line has been formed. Although it is not very strong, it is still in place. The MACD indicator is currently holding high. In order to form new strong buy signals, it needs go back to the zero level. Thus, in any case, we need to wait for it to reach the zero level which may happen during the night. Also, novice traders can open a buy position after the price breaks through the level of 1.1912. In this case, the trade should be left overnight with a Stop Loss set below 1.1912. Take Profit, as before, should be set at 30-40 pips. Stop Loss should be moved to a breakeven point when the price moves by 15-20 pips in the right direction. On the 5-minute time frame, there are several levels of 1.1893, 1.1912, 1.1927, and 1.1937 where the price can rebound or make a breakout. It is important that the signal is clear. If the signal is vague, it is better not to enter the market at all. Tomorrow, no key macroeconomic data is expected in the US and the EU.
On the chart
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trendlines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
