The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument has become more complicated after the results of the Fed meeting were summed up. The supposed wave 4, which, as I recall, raised many questions due to its complex internal wave structure, was recognized as untenable. Therefore, it has now transformed into wave a of the new downward trend, which can also turn out to be three-wave. In this case, the internal wave structure of this wave a also raises certain questions, since more than 5 waves are already visible inside it. However, complex corrective structures can consist of a large number of waves that are embedded in one another. For example, any wave of a corrective structure can consist of three sub-waves, which will be the same size as waves of a higher scale, which does not at all contribute to a more accurate understanding of what is happening. It makes little sense to work with such complex wave structures since any wave at any time can take on a complex form. The complexity of the current wave counting just indicates that the wave is corrective, not impulsive. Thus, I expect the completion of the construction of this wave soon and the departure of quotes from the lows reached within wave b.
The news background on Friday and Monday was very weak. By and large, the demand for the US dollar remains very high precisely because of the Fed meeting and what was said there. Although from my point of view, no important decisions and statements were made, the markets nevertheless regarded it as a good opportunity to start building a new three-wave structure of a bearish nature. Since there was no news background during the day, the whole calculation was reduced to wave counting. Tomorrow the situation will not change much, since during the day only Jerome Powell's speech will take place, who has already told the markets everything he could. Therefore, the markets are unlikely to receive new information and it is unlikely that it will have the same impact on the Euro/Dollar instrument. There will be very few interesting events this week, so I consider it a good time to start building a new upward wave b. In any case, in the coming days, an increase in the instrument's quotes is more preferable, only because the instrument has already lost more than 400 basis points within one downward wave (a). Therefore, it is quite possible to count on an increase of 100-200 points.
Based on the analysis, I still expect the instrument quotes to go up, but now within the corrective wave b. It is necessary to wait for the signal of the completion of wave a, it may be an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1836 mark, which equates to 76.4% according to Fibonacci, but such a good signal may not be there. The purchases of the European currency can be carried out with targets located near the levels of 1.1984 and 1.2051, which corresponds to 50.0% and 38.2% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "up".
The wave counting of the new upward trend section is not entirely unambiguous, however, at this time, it is presumably completed. Thus, now I am expecting the construction of three downward waves, the first wave, perhaps, is already nearing its completion.
