GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair traded near the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3830) on Monday. The pair crossed this level several times - there was practically no trend movement. Nevertheless, at this time, the bulls have an advantage over the bears. However, they are experiencing serious problems with taking the level of 1.3892. It was near it that they suffered two failures, so now the quotes may continue to fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3792) on the small Fibo grid. Just half an hour ago, several important reports were published in the UK. The unemployment rate in July fell from 4.7% to 4.6%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 58.6 thousand, and average wages, including bonuses, increased by 8.3%. All three reports exceeded traders' expectations, but in the first half-hour, the pound did not experience any support.
Thus, it is possible that traders did not pay due attention to these reports and focused on the indicator of American inflation, which will be released in the afternoon. There are much fewer questions to the Bank of England now than to the Fed. The Bank of England has given certain signals about its readiness to start reducing the volume of asset purchases, but at the same time, all this remains at the level of talk. Fed members regularly say that "the time has come." Therefore, despite the weak Nonfarm Payrolls report, the probability of curtailing incentives in September remains high. The Bank of England is not talking about announcing a reduction in the stimulus program in the near future. At least the chances of this are much less. Thus, traders are still in thought and cannot form a clear trading strategy for the near future. The 4-hour chart shows that the British dollar has been trading between 1.4000 and 1.3600 in recent months. Therefore, there is no consensus among traders now.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a new reversal in favor of the US currency near the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). A new process of falling has begun, which can continue to the level of 38.2% (1.3746). However, this requires closing under the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3791). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. It was said above that traders cannot decide on a clear direction at this time, so it is best to use signals formed locally near important corrective levels.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
UK - change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (06:00 UTC).
UK - unemployment rate (06:00 UTC).
UK - change in the level of average earnings (06:00 UTC).
US - consumer price index (12:30 UTC).
Three reports have already been released in the UK on Tuesday. But in the first minutes after their release, there was almost no reaction from traders. There is still hope for a report on US inflation, which should attract more attention from traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on September 7 for the pound showed that the mood of major players has become more "bearish." During the reporting week, speculators closed 5,437 long contracts and opened 2,427 short contracts. The total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators is already almost twice less than the total number of short contracts. Therefore, in general, the mood of speculators is now "bearish." However, traders still have big problems with closing at 1.3600, and at this time, there are still excellent opportunities for the growth of the British dollar quotes. Thus, the further fall of the British is not guaranteed. We need graphical sell signals so that they coincide with the data of COT reports.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying the pair at the rebound level of 1.3792 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3830. I recommend selling the pound today at the closing of quotes under the level of 1.3830 on the hourly chart with the target of 1.3792.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
