The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of the EUR/USD pair remains the same. It still passes no more than 50 points per day, which does not allow making any changes to the wave pattern. Last week, we saw a slight decline in quotes, which was caused by an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This week, or rather today, the decline in the quotes of the pair resumed, so we are talking about the complication of the expected wave b. This is very bad for the current wave count since wave b has already turned out to be quite deep compared to wave a. Therefore, a further decline will mean that the corrective wave as part of the next correction section of the trend may end approximately near the low of wave a. In addition, the entire downward section of the trend may resume its construction, which will significantly complicate the wave counting. I don't believe in this scenario yet, but the decline in the quotes of the pair today forces us to treat it carefully.
The news background for the EUR/USD currency pair was interesting on Thursday but was also almost useless. As stressed, many recent economic reports have not been worked out as everyone expected. Thus, the decline in the quotes of the pair today by 70 basis points calls for understanding the reasons for this movement. And there are no such reasons. There were no significant economic reports in the European Union besides the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde. Thus, the euro currency began to fall. Meanwhile, the report on retail trade in the US was strong, although, by that time, the EUR/USD pair had already passed down 60 basis points. In general, everyone was waiting for a strong movement, and when it happened, no one can understand why it happened and why it has nothing to do with the information background.
Perhaps the markets feel the approach of the Fed meeting, which will be held next week, and began to trade under the pressure of those decisions that can be made at it. Let me remind you that for several months in a row there have been rumors and conversations that the Fed is ready to start curtailing the economic stimulus program. Perhaps the markets believe that this moment will come on September 22, and this is why the increase in the quotes of the US currency is connected. At least, I don't see any other reasons for the sharp and unexpected growth of the US currency. Now it is very important that the growth of the dollar ends as soon as possible, otherwise, the wave counting risks becoming more complicated and will require adjustments and additions.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave b may be completed soon. Therefore, now I still expect an increase in quotes. Therefore, I still advise buying the pair with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up." As a confirmation of this assumption, we can wait for a new successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level. It is best to do this since wave b may take on a more complex form and even the entire wave layout may change if the decline continues.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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