Hello, dear traders! On the hourly chart, on Friday the GBP/USD pair made a reversal in favor of the US currency and fell to the correctional level of 76.4% at 1.3675. The lower boundary of the uptrend corridor is near this area, further indicating the current traders' bullish sentiment. The pair has neither rebounded nor closed under this line or the level of 1.3675. The market took a passive stance near them. On Monday morning, traders hardly show any trading activity, giving no buy or sell signals. Besides, there was the UK information background on Friday. The GDP report for December and the industrial production report turned out to be better than traders expected. In the first half of the day, the British currency rose slightly due to this data. However, in the afternoon it started a strong decline despite weak US statistics. Currently, the market is facing a stalemate, as there are no trading signals and the graphical picture is mixed.
Both the euro and the pound might begin to grow or fall from their current positions. Traders have to await this situation to clear up. Moreover, it may occur only next week, when the Bank of England and the Fed will hold their next meetings. Notably, strong attention is being focused on both central banks at the moment as the British bank has raised its interest rate for the first time and the US bank is going to do it in March. Therefore, any comment from any bank representative could affect traders' sentiment. This week, the most significant events will occur in the UK, for example relevant economic reports and Governor Andrew Bailey's speech. Notably, the inflation report will be the most significant. Besides, inflation continues to grow in the US, as well as in the EU. As for the chart picture, the British currency is most likely to collapse. It could fall below the trend line many times. However, each time it managed to get out of it due to chance and traders' bullish sentiment. Moreover, the bullish sentiment has already persisted for a month. So, bull traders will have to loosen their grip in the near future.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise, failing to close under the uptrend line. The quotes reached the correction level of 38.2% at 1.3642, indicating further growth towards the next Fibo level of 23.6% at 1.3870. The pair's consolidation under the trend line will favour the US currency and some decline towards the correction level of 50.0% at 1.3457.
US and UK economic news calendar:
There are no relevant events in the UK and US economic calendar on Monday. Therefore, today's information background will not influence traders' sentiment. It has already been seen by the movement of the GBP/USD pair this morning.
GBP/USD outlook and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pound if there is a close below the uptrend line on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.3497. I recommend buying the British pound with a target of 1.3834 if there is a clear rebound from the trend line on the 4-hour chart.
