Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
The test of 1.0044 happened when the MACD line moved down quite a lot from zero, which limited the further downside potential of the pair. Some time later, another test took place, but this time the MACD line was just starting to move down from zero, which was a good reason to sell. This resulted in a price decrease of around 30 pips. No other signals appeared for the rest of the day.
Although the speech of ECB member Frank Elderson did not affect euro, the upcoming US inflation data led to the closing of many short positions, leading to a move downwards. Today's economic bulletin from the ECB could extend this fall as the data will outline the economic prospects for the eurozone. Board member Isabelle Schnabel will also speak, but her statements are unlikely to lead to a surge in volatility.
The second half of the day promises to be much more interesting: data on consumer prices in the US will determine the direction of dollar in the near future. If there is a decrease in inflation, USD will fall. If it increases, demand will return and there will be a massive sell-off in EUR/USD. Comments from FOMC members Patrick Harker, Loretta Mester and Esther George would also be of great interest, while the report on the weekly jobless claims will be ignored.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0049 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0091. Growth will occur when inflationary pressure in the US decreases. Remember that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it.
Euro can also be bought at 1.0023, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0049 and 1.0091.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0023 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9979. Pressure will return after another increase in inflation in the US. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it.
Euro can also be sold at 1.0049, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0023 and 0.9979.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
