15.04.2021: Further rise in EUR remains in doubt. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

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الآراء
The pound sterling and the euro are confidently gaining in value. Such a dynamic was partially caused by the inflation data from the leading eurozone countries.
In particular, in Germany, inflation accelerated to 1.7% from 1.3%. In France, the indicator advanced to 1.1% from 0.6%. At the same time, in Italy, inflation inched up to 0.8% from 0.6%. Of course, some analysts suppose that the current rise may result in an inflationary spiral. The fact is that the recent inflation figures are in line with the moderate forecasts. In other words, there are no reasons to say that inflation may spiral out of control, at least in Europe. Initially, the indicator showed a jump, but then the growth paces became slower.
Expectations of a bulk of macroeconomic data in the US is the second reason for a rise in the pound sterling and the euro. The forecasts are really positive. For example, the US retail sales may advance by 7.9% in the given period. It means that in the US, both prices and sales climbed, thus increasing companies’ income. This, in turn, alleviated concerns about a surge in inflation.
Moreover, economists foresee an ongoing labor market recovery. Thus, the number of the first-time and continuing claims may decline.
The US will also report on its industrial production. The indicator is expected to show a smaller drop of 1.4%. At the same time, in Europe, industrial production continues falling at higher paces. Therefore, predictions are really encouraging, and the US dollar may receive significant support. At the moment, we can see an ordinary scenario when the market is moving against the forecasts. This movement is likely to be followed by a sharp change in the trend.
Yesterday, the euro/dollar pair managed to keep the inertial upward movement and approached the level of 1.1987. Notably, the pair is moving within the limits of the psychological level of 1.2000. Analyzing the current chart, we can see that the price is hovering near the lower limit of the range of 1.1950 and 1.2000. Judging by a long-lived rise and a strong resistance level, the volume of long positions may decline and the volume of short positions may increase.
Sell positions could be opened, if the pair fixes below 1.1950 with the targeted level of 1.1920-1.1875.
Traders may open buy positions only if the price consolidates above 1.2000. The initial target is located just 20/35 pips higher than the mentioned level.
The pound/dollar pair is also gaining in value, but at slower paces.
On the trading chart, we can see that the price is hovering between the levels of 1.3750 and 1.3800. It looks like an accumulation process ahead of a jump.
In this case, traders may apply the strategy based on a break of either limit of the range.

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