19.04.2021: Oil’s rally on halt (Brent, WTI, USD/RUB, EUR/RUB)

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الآراء
This week, markets await the meetings of central banks. The European Central Bank’s meeting is scheduled on Thursday, while the Central Bank of Russia will hold its policy meeting on Friday. Market participants expect the ECB to confirm its plans to maintain soft monetary policy and provide stimulus measures. Meanwhile, Russian central bank considers raising interest rates by 0.25% or even 0.5%. Analysts explain this as a reaction of the regulator to the ruble’s depreciation last week. Now let’s find out more details! Last week, oil prices advanced amid strong US stock market and economic recovery in the country. However, oil may slip into negative territory as soon as a correction in the stock market begins. Besides, the third coronavirus wave threatens the recovery of the global economy. As you can see on the chart, both oil benchmarks traded with minor losses in the morning session, having dropped by 0.3%. Brent settled at 66 dollar 50 cents per barrel, while WTI was holding at 63 dollars a barrel. Brent is forecast to trade in the range between 65.00 and 69.00 dollars a barrel, and the expected price channel for WTI is seen between 62.00 and 66.00 dollars a barrel. From the technical viewpoint, however, oil doesn’t seem very stable. Crude prices reached their peak levels almost a month ago on March 8. This means that oil is losing upside momentum and is about to meet a strong resistance level at 67.50 for WTI and 71.50 for Brent. Meanwhile, the Russian ruble opened this Monday session with a moderate decline. On Friday, it managed to close relatively higher after a short-lived fall triggered by US sanctions. The geopolitical situation remains the key factor for the Russian currency. The prospects of the meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin this summer are rather gloomy given that the sanctions have already been imposed. Therefore, the ruble is balancing between a rise and a new fall. Today, the dollar/ruble pair was trading at 76.20, and is likely to hold in the range between 74.80 and 77.20 rubles per US dollar. The ruble may get support from the upcoming rates hike by the Russian central bank. The ruble also eased against the euro due to political tensions. Notably, current events weigh on the ruble that has already been very weak against major currencies. All this is happening amid a relatively stable economic state in Russia, the pandemic crisis in Europe, and high oil prices! Therefore, we can see that the downside potential for the ruble is not big. Today, the euro/ruble pair settled at 91.10, with the expected range between 89.50 and 92.50 rubles per euro. Russia is also at risk of a third coronavirus wave as a surge in new cases was recorded in Moscow this weekend. The number of new infected people increased by almost 25%. This keeps participants of the Russian stock market alert. At the moment, the ruble has no obvious reason to rise. The same is true for oil.

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