EUR/USD

As we expected in the last review, the euro did not have enough fuse to reach the target level of 1.1324. The price very quickly returned below the internal line of the price channel, which formed, albeit weak, but the divergence of price with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart.

Losses were capped at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.1216) and at the time that the Marlin signal line on the H4 reached the border of the decline zone. Thus, the oscillator received detente and formally growth was able to continue, as the trend in both charts remains increasing, but the decline occurred on large volumes, which indicates the closing of positions before today's meeting of the ECB.

From today's meeting, investors are waiting for details on the TLTRO program. But this may not be the case, since the program, launched in the fall, will be conducted under the leadership of the new ECB Chairman, who may not like the "details". On the other hand, TLTRO in the current situation (as well as five years ago) is not so much a stimulus for business lending as a veiled program of quantitative easing. Therefore, even if the program's provisions are made public today, they are unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the market, especially in terms of growth. From this point of view, we expect that the divergence on the four-hour chart will be the first sign of a reversal of the trend for a further decrease.

The second sign will be when the price overcomes the MACD support lines on the charts of both scales, this is the range 1.1185-1.1192. The goal of the decline is 1.1155 – the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. Next at 1.1075.