EUR/USD

The euro grew by 45 points last Friday in preparation for a new busy week - decisions by the Fed and the ECB on monetary policy are ahead, and investors need to draw an intermediate balance in the strength and effect of these central banks in influencing the exchange rate of the euro and the dollar.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator again lies in the horizon below the border with the growth territory on the daily chart. The potential for pulling down both the oscillator and the price remains, since the price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines and the MACD line (blue) strengthens the downward slope. The main objective of the euro at 1.0605 along the price channel is relevant.

The price is approaching the upper limit of the local price channel on the four-hour chart and now the euro is facing three scenarios: to turn down from current levels, which could help display the balance line (red), keeps the price in a negative trend reversal within the 1.0825/95 range, marked as a gray rectangle, that would mean testing the consolidation zone of 16-22 April, and output over the MACD line (1.0895) with the intention to work out strong resistance at 1.0940 on the daily chart.

According to Marlin, convergence is formed on the H4, the signal line is already in the growth zone, but here, a reversal could also occur from the upper boundary of the oscillator's own channel.

In general, there are more technical prerequisites for a decline. But the price could freely wander until Wednesday, when the Fed's decision on monetary policy is announced. The ECB meeting seems more predictable, namely the fact that nothing new will be announced on it.