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29.06.2020: RUB heading for 70-75 against USD (Brent, USD/RUB)

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Today the risk sentiment is subdued due to uncertainty on global markets. Oil continues its drop on Monday amid the lack of drivers for further growth. A slide in crude prices weighs on the Russian currency which has retreated to the mark of 70 against the US dollar during today’s session.
Global oil prices fell over the past week in the course of two trading sessions. Brent was lower by 2.8%, while WTI dropped by 3.4 %. Today oil started this week in the negative territory as well. The downtrend in crude prices was mainly caused by renewed worries over the second wave of the pandemic.
As the US is seeing a big surge in virus cases, some states may resume the quarantine restrictive measures. However, this time no massive lockdownds are expected. So market participants hope that partial lockdown will not affect the recovery of fuel demand.
Brent oil futures for August settled at 40 US dollars 50 cents a barrel in the mid-session. The American crude also lost 1% from the previous closing levels. As a result, WTI contract with the nearest expiration date was down by 1% at 30 dollars 12 cents per barrel.
The oil production in the US continues to be the key factor for the commodities market. Currently, US shale industry is going through hard times. Recently, shale-drilling pioneer Chesapeake Energy has filed for bankruptcy, and this is not the only company hurt by the crisis. Thus, over 12 gas and oil companies in the US went bankrupt, unable to survive amid current oil prices. The number of active oil drills went down by one from the previous week, extending the drop for 15 weeks in a row.
Such background may serve as a bullish factor for oil prices. Yet, fears over the second wave of the disease and worries about the rapid contraction of energy demand seem to outweigh the optimistic sentiment. In the next two weeks, members of the OPEC+ will monitor the dynamics of oil quotes in order to decide on their futures policy on production cuts. Currently, the grouping sticks to record output cuts which have been agreed earlier.
The lack of drivers in the oil market and weak macroeconomic data contributed to the rise of the US dollar. Today, the dollar/ruble pair has successfully tested the level of 70. In the day trade, the greenback gained 0.4% and settled at 70 rubles 07 kopecks.
On Monday, the ruble is expected to trade in the range between 69.50 and 70.50 against the dollar. If risk aversion continues and oil drops below 40 US dollars per barrel, the ruble may retreat to the level of 70 or 75.00 against the American currency.
The ruble has been losing ground since Friday amid falling oil prices and low risk appetite. In addition, the tax payment period in Russia is over. This week, the ruble is likely to stay under pressure given the negative fundamental factors. However, positive data on PMI in China and the US may support the ruble in the course of the week. For this to happen, the PMI reading in China should be above 50 points while in the US the indicator should at least approach this level.
At the moment, the internal factors are unlikely to have any influence on the ruble’s trajectory. It will be rather determined by the risk sentiment and the situation in the global markets.

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