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09.07.2020: Oil set to hit $45 faster than expected (Brent, USD/RUB)

Despite the negative background, oil is holding steady and is testing new highs.Traders seem to have downplayed the rise in US crude inventories as well as the surge in new COVID-19 cases in the United States. Oil bulls are now heading for the next level of resistance at 45 US dollars per barrel.
On Wednesday, oil closed the session reaching its highest levels since March 6. The rise in oil prices came after the US Energy Department published its report on crude inventories. The data showed that for almost a month US crude oil production has been holding near 11 million barrels a day. The build in stockpiles reported earlier by the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration can be explained by an increase in oil imports. This is actually a good sign indicating a recovery in fuel demand in the country.
Yet, the reaction of traders was surprisingly calm. Previously, a surge in oil inventories by 5.6 million barrels would trigger a collapse in oil quotes by at least one or two dollars. Probably, investors are tired of market shocks and determined to continue the uptrend.
However, the spike in coronavirus cases can restrict the upward movement of crude prices. The United States reported 60,000 new COVID-19 cases in a single day. This is the biggest increase reported in the country since the outbreak began. Such states as California, Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Oklahoma, and Texas are seeing the largest number of infections.
Brent oil futures for September settled at 43 dollars 27 cents per barrel. WTI contract with the nearest expiration is trading at 40 dollars 76 cents a barrel. In the day session, both benchmarks were moving slightly lower, having lost 0.02%.
The ruble has notably eased after the Bank of Russia announced it was going to reduce its foreign exchange purchases by almost a half. Yet the news did not come as a surprise to traders as it has already been priced in the qoutes. On Wednesday, the Russian Ministry of Finance held a successful placement of federal loan bonds. However, this factor did support the ruble as well as the data on oil reserves.
At the moment, the ruble is recovering from early losses. It is now going through the technical correction to consolidate in the narrow sideways channel. The dollar/ruble pair is trading near the mark of 70.80. The Russian currency feels comfortable at this level and doesn’t react strongly to negative external factors. So today, the ruble is likely to stay trading in the range between 70.40 and 70.80 against the US dollar.
In the short term, the ruble may follow the trajectory of other currencies of emerging markets. Their dynamics will be determined by the situation around the coronavirus spread and the US-China relations.

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