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10.07.2020: Oil and RUB remain under pressure, but crash is unlikely (Brent, USD/RUB)

Oil is trading in the red on Friday and is likely to close this week with losses. The ruble is struggling to settle near the level of 71 against the US dollar.
In the mid-term, the ruble is expected to edge lower amid the limited growth in oil prices and overall risk aversion. Besides, at the moment there are no local factors to support the ruble.
In the day trade, Brent oil futures for September went lower by more than 2%. The North Sea crude settled at 41 US dollars 44 cents per barrel. West Texas Intermediate oil was following a similar trajectory. The American crude was last seen trading at 38 dollars 70 cents per barrel.
The official industry data continues to weigh on the oil market. Thus, oil stockpiles at the Cushing Terminal rose by 2.2 million barrels, for the first time in eight weeks. Overall, crude supplies in the US have increased over the week by 5.7 million barrels, or 1.1%. However, yesterday, market participants were surprisingly optimistic despite the bearish crude data.
Another factor restricting oil’s rise could be the news from China which seem to be running out of place to store crude oil. Since the beginning of the year, oil crude reserves in China went up by 25%. Apparently, the global oil market is facing an oversupply.This could lead to a faster drop in crude prices in the near future.
In the meantime, investors’ sentiment is dampened by fears over the rapid coronavirus spread. Market participants are worried that the renewed lockdowns following a surge in coronavirus cases may suppress the global economic recovery. At the moment, oil bulls are almost ready to retreat. Therefore, the US crude oil is at risk of hitting 30 dollars per barrel if the downward pressure continues.
Still, the overall situation in the energy market remains stable. Brent is unlikely to slip below 40 dollars per barrel. If the quotes approach this level, then traders might want to open more long deals in order to gain profit.
Despite a slight fall in oil prices, the ruble managed to advance against its American counterpart on Thursday. Today, the Russian currency is mostly following the dynamics of emerging market assets and crude prices. In the mid-session, the ruble lost nearly 0.5% against the US dollar. If no supporting factors emerge, then the dollar/ruble pair is likely to climb above the mark of 71.50.

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