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02.07.2020: Oil at risk of moving lower after nonfarm payrolls release (Brent, USD/RUB)

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The global market sentiment remains moderately positive despite some negative factors. Brent is trying to hold near 42 dollars a barrel while the ruble is recovering from the previous losses.
The new COVID-19 outbreak in the developed countries could threaten the revival of the global economy. The US have already recorded an all-time surge in new coronavirus cases per day. The same scenario may occur in Europe. Another factor to weigh on oil prices is the rising tensions between the US and China. Amid all these factors, investors may downgrade their expectations for a quick economic recovery.
In the meantime, traders seem to downplay the risks of the pandemic. On Thursday, oil opened the trade in positive territory. Oil bulls were encouraged by the positive data from the US Energy Information Administration. The official report showed a decline in US crude stockpiles, confirming the forecast from the American Petroleum Institute. Oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week, whereas analysts had expected a slight drop by 0.7 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline inventories in the US rose to the highest level since last August and reached a seasonal peak over the past nine years.
At midday, Brent futures with the nearest expiration date went up by 0.7% to 42 dollars 31 cents per barrel. Likewise, WTI contract for August was trading higher. The American crude is trying to settle above 40 dollars a barrel.
From the technical point of view, Brent will continue to trade in the price range between 42 and 43 dollars per barrel until the end of the week. If the uptrend persists, Brent is likely to test the strong resistance level at 44 dollars per barrel. In case of the breakthrough, the gap is possible near the level of 45 dollars and above. Under a different scenario, oil quotes may edge lower to support level at 40 dollars a barrel.
Today, the monthly statistics on nonfarm payrolls in the US may influence the energy market. The data may affect the risk sentiment as well as the demand for the US dollar. This, in turn, will shape further trajectory of oil prices.
The ruble started the day with a sharp rise against the US dollar, recovering after a short pause taken during the day-off on July 1. Optimism in the global markets was supported by successful testing of the new COVID-19 vaccine provided by the US pharmaceutical company Pfizer. Today investors continue to evaluate the upbeat macroeconomic data on the industrial sectors of the United States and Europe.
The dollar/ruble pair lost nearly 1% of its value in the mid-session with the ruble trading at 70.32 against the greenback.
The stabilization of oil prices and strengthening of other emerging market currencies have definitely contributed to the ruble’s growth. Yet, the US dollar is expected to trade within the range of 70 and 75 against the Russian currency. In July, the dollar could test the upper boundary of this price channel.
Speculations in the media about Russia’s involvement in cooperation with Taliban militants may put pressure on the ruble. In addition, volatility in cash flows during the period of dividend payments in Russia could affect the exchange rate of the the ruble. In the meantime, currency sales carried out by the Bank of Russia under the budget rule will serve as a supporting factor for the ruble.

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