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30.06.2020: USD manages to rise against EUR and GBP. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

At the beginning of the trading day, the euro and the pound sterling showed an insignificant drop. Unlike the euro, the British pound had reasons for a slide.
In the fourth quarter of the previous year, the UK GDP advanced by 1.1%. In the first quarter of the current year, the indicator declined by 1.7% whereas economists had expected a smaller drop of 1.6%. Despite the fact that the coronavirus pandemic hit all countries in the world, the US GDP inched up in the first quarter of the year. Notably, containment measures in the UK were imposed at the end of the first quarter. Thus, it is quite possible that in the second quarter, the country’s economy may shrink even more. Nevertheless, the UK has officially entered recession. There is no wonder that the pound sterling lost its positions amid the news.
Yesterday, the pound/dollar pair was falling. It even accelerated from the level of 1.2350 and hit a fresh monthly low.
Bearish sentiment continues to prevail in the market. It means that the pair may go on sliding to reach new lows. However, we should take into account that the current data, including the UK GDP, has a significant influence on the market.
According to the trading chart, the pound/dollar pair made an attempt to reach a new low. However, the level of 1.2250 prevents the price from a further drop.
If the price consolidates below 1.2250, it may decline to 1.2200-1.2150 where it may slow down and rebound.
Buy deals could be opened, if the price consolidates above 1.2315 with the targeted level at 1.2350-1.2385.
At the same time, the single currency has surprised market participants. According to preliminary estimates, the eurozone inflation slowed down to the zero level whereas consumer prices advanced by 0.3%. As a rule, such data leads to the euro’s rise. The fact is that the inflation growth is a strong reason that the ECB should revise its policy or at least, the quantitative easing program. However, amid the news, the euro went on losing its positions. It is possible that investors do not believe that the ECB may tighten its policy. Moreover, the eurozone inflation remains on the extremely low levels whereas some European countries have already entered deflation. Traders should also take into account that the figures could be revised. Furthermore, the ECB may take more radical measures amid the expectations of the second wave of the coronavirus.
Today, the US will not disclose any important macroeconomic data. Thus, during the American trading session, market participants may use only technical analysis.
Yesterday, the euro/dollar pair was also decreasing. The levels of 1.1190/1.1240 were considered as support. Near the levels, the pair accelerated and then, turned back. The downward trend has been prevailing for more than two weeks already. This points to the weak dynamic of the pair and doubts among market participants. Thus, it is almost impossible to break the level of 1.1180.
According to the trading chart, at the beginning of the European session, the number of short positions declined allowing the quote to approach the levels of 1.1190/1.1240. The level of 1.1180 is still the main obstacle for sellers. If the price consolidates below 1.1165, it may start recovering.

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