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13.07.2020: Oil slips as traders expect OPEC to scale back output cuts (Brent, USD/RUB)

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Oil slipped in the early Asian trade. Nevertheless, Brent crude is unlikely to escape from the trading range of 40-44 dollars a barrel in the short term. The bearish trend could be propelled by weighty reasons. If the US re-imposes lockdown measures, this could be one of the headwinds for the energy market. The ruble is also running the risk. It is expected to trade under pressure in the nearest days.
Global benchmark grades shed over 1% on Monday. Brent futures with the nearest expiry lost 1.5% in midday to trade at 42 US dollars 62 cents a barrel. August WTI contracts were 1.9% lower at 39 dollars 79 cents a barrel.
Market participants are sitting on the sidelines of the OPEC summit scheduled for July 15. Oil ministers could recommend easing in supply cuts under the current pact. The cartel and non-OPEC Russia are expected to agree on production cuts of 7.7 barrels per day. This scenario could dampen investors’ sentiment because the global demand for oil has not recovered to the pre-crisis level. Moreover, the threat of the second shutdown could reduce demand for energy again.
Last week, oil prices instantly dropped 3%. So, market participants assume the scenario of the bear market. On the other hand, some analysts are speculating about the uptrend of oil prices because oil and gas companies refrain from investing in development of new oilfields. The lack of investment could force ailing producers to leave the market. As a result, oil prices might skyrocket to 100 US dollars a barrel in the nearest one or two years.
Such predictions refer to the distant future. Amid present fundamentals, traders are poised to sell oil contracts. Apart from the OPEC technical meeting, Libya also serves as another culprit for the downtrend. Domestic oil facilities have been launched again following a long idle time since January amid the civil war. Therefore, Libya is about to flood the market with extra 900 thousand barrels per day. The bears could push oil prices down amid a new surge in the coronavirus cases. The US reported a fresh daily record of 63 thousand cases.
On the whole, market sentiment in global markets is cautiously optimistic. The ruble is following the same trajectory like other emerging market currencies. However, it is giving in to the selling pressure. The ruble failed to sustain at near 70.50 – 70.90 versus the US dollar. In midday, the dollar/ruble pair climbed as high as 71. The greenback aims to win back earlier losses. Anyway, the ruble is set to trade in the range of 70.00 – 72.00 until a correction phase of riskier assets. If oil prices hold at near 42 – 43 dollars a barrel this week, the ruble will make efforts to cling to the level above 71 versus the US dollar.
The ruble could find support from the tax filing period which is due to start this week. The peak of tax payments will fall on July 27. In the nearest days, the ruble could be propped up by China’s PMI data if the index confirms a recovery in China’s economy.
Fundamentally, the ruble is likely to lose ground in the near future in case of the global risk aversion and the risk of new sanctions. As long as none of such factors resurfaces, the ruble is going to trade steadily.

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