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29.06.2020: USD finds it hard to decide on trajectory (USDХ, DJIA, WTI, USD/CAD)

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Traders are braced for another turbulent week judging by the dynamics of US stock indexes. The VIX volatility index has been rising for the second day in a row which mirrors anxiety among investors. Despite gyrations, futures on the Dow Jones managed to grow marginally. Last week, the Dow Jones shed over 3%. So it is likely to close the month in the red.
Market sentiment is turning sour in the recent trading days. Investors resumed fears over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Market participants are reckoning the recovery prospects for the global economy. Such uncertainty is sure to put pressure on a wide range of assets.
Nevertheless, the major risk in the second half of the year comes from the presidential election, but not from the pandemic. Donald Trump has been losing scores in polls that could prompt him to take resolute measures which would affect the equity market.
The stock market is interested in new catalysts for growth. This week, traders are alert to a batch of macroeconomic data for June which could be better than expected. Later, US companies are due to present their financial reports, so investors are anticipating strong figures.
Futures on the Dow Jones gained today 0.5% to trade at 25,089. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.12% trading at 3,012.38.
Fears over a record surge in new coronavirus cases feed risk aversion that supports the US dollar as a safe haven asset. Despite the buoyant demand for the US dollar, there are some factors to contain its advance.
The greenback rebounded all right. When it comes to its index, there is a gap which has to be filled. Only in this case, the US dollar will be able to sustain a steady rally that will be supported by intensifying worries about a revival in the global economy.
The index is trading lower on Monday. It halted its decline in the New York session, trading at near 97.20.
There are some currencies which are more sensitive to the worries about the pandemic aftermath. Earlier, they bounced vigorously from lows in anticipation of the rapid economic recovery. The Canadian dollar is among them. Lately, the loonie is losing ground against its American peer. As a result, the USD/CAD pair sharply climbed above 1.37. The downward correction of oil prices is also to blame for the loonie’s weakness. Nevertheless, it is too early to speak about the loonie’s retreat to 1.3850 against the US dollar.
In the New York session, the USD/CAD pair is trading slightly lower at about 1.3680. Oil prices again reversed upwards. Brent crude climbed above 41 US dollars a barrel. WTI gained 0.5% to trade at 38 dollars 60 cents a barrel.
The most eventful day this week will be Thursday. The market will get to know a weekly update on US unemployment claims, nonfarm payrolls, and other data on the US labor market. On Friday, US trading floors will be shut on occasion of the public holiday, Independence Day. Traders are going to manage their deals until July 3.

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