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01.06.2020: USD loses ground after Trump’s Hong Kong response: outlook for USD/JPY, AUD/USD

The first day of the new trading week is unfolding quietly. The US dollar and risky assets managed to win back some of their losses against such a background.
The US dollar index continued to decline, falling below the level of 98.00. Then, it entered the consolidation phase. Amid the latest protests in the US over the death of an African-American man detained by police, the greenback is unlikely to develop an upward rally.
The last trading week ended in a rather turbulent mood as traders were anticipating “something powerful” from Donald Trump in response to China’s Hong Kong security law. However, eventually, Trump’s response did not come as a surprise for market participants. Hong Kong has lost its autonomy from China and the US has removed its special status on trade and other issues. Besides, the US has imposed new sanctions on several officials and decided to expel students studying for exchange at US military universities.
The US dollar was also pressurized by Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements. He brought up the topic of the negative rate. Powell repeated once again that the committee’s view on negative rates had not changed. However, investors noticed that this time Powell was not so categorical about such a possibility. Traders were perplexed by Powell’s statement that "reports the effects of negative interest rates are contradictory."In the meantime, the dollar/yen pair exhibits strength, trying to break through the resistance level at 107.78. If so, the pair is likely to reach 108.30, especially amid risk-off sentiment in the market.
The new trading week kicked off with the publication of data on business activity in the world's largest economies. As a rule, countries unveil such reports every new month. This time, market sentiment has improved amid positive data. In China, the manufacturing PMI climbed up. Activity in China's manufacturing sector revived in May, sending the PMI to 50.7 points. A reading above 50 points marks an expansion in the activity.
The Australian dollar is extending rally amid such news. The AUD/USD pair hit a 4-month high. It touched the level of 0.6760. The next upward target is located near the January 2016 high at 0.6825. Taking into account the strong upward momentum, technical analysis experts project further growth of the indicator on the H4 chart without forming a divergence. However, this is a signal to open long deals on the pair only with a small trading volume. The pair also spiked up amid tomorrow's meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Judging by the positive remarks of RBA Governor Philip Lowe during his last speech, the central bank is highly likely to take a wait-and-see approach. Besides, by the end of the year, the regulator may raise the interest rate.

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