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08.07.2020: RUB to recoup losses, heading for 70.70 against USD (Brent, USD/RUB)

Oil is trading flat on Wednesday as investors are avoiding risks amid the second wave of the coronavirus outbreak. Today, markets will focus on the official data on oil inventories in the US. Meanwhile, the ruble is moving steadily higher.
Both oil benchmarks opened the day in the negative territory. Traders’ optimism faded after the report from the American Petroleum Institute showed that US crude supplies rose by 2 million barrels last week. Despite a slight decline, in the day session Brent continued to consolidate gains near the level of 43 US dollars per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading above 40 dollars per barrel.
In the meantime, hopes for a quick economic recovery in China help oil trade at comfortable levels. Signs of economic revival seem to offset worries about a spike in coronavirus cases in the United States and other parts of the world. Yet, the surge in COVID-19 infections may still threaten the fuel demand.
Under the current conditions, Brent is expected to trade in the range between 41.20 and 44.50 dollars per barrel. The American crude is likely to stay within the range of 38.50 and 41.50 dollars a barrel in the next two weeks.
Later in the day, traders will keep a close eye on the official industry data from the US Energy Information Administration. Based on the previous report, at the moment, the US is producing around 11 million barrels per day compared to 13 million barrels at the beginning of the year. Currently, oil prices have settled near the upper boundary of the trade channel. Therefore, market participants can expect a rise in US shale oil output.
Besides, oil stockpiles are likely to grow as well. If the US Energy Department confirms the build in crude inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute, oil market will see another wave of sell-off.
Oil is holding steady today, and the information background is rather neutral. Amid these factors, the Russian ruble will try to win back its early losses from the previous session. In the mid-trade, the dollar/ruble pair went lower by 0.5% to 71 rubles 17 kopecks. The US dollar is facing resistance at 71.10. If the pair breaks through this level, the bears will try to push it back to the mark of 70.70.
On Wednesday, the Russian Ministry of Finance is offering federal loan bonds with floating rate and interest payments in 2026. Last week, the demand for the debt securities with floating coupon was rather high. So, the same is expected today. However, this local factor is unlikely to support the ruble.
The Russian currency will gain momentum only if Brent passes the level of 44 dollars 50 cents per barrel.
The volatility in the Russian foreign exchange will probably remain high till the end of the week.

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