09.08.201907:45 Форекс анализи и прегледи: Overview of EUR/USD on August 9th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The euro is preparing to resume the downward trend?

4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 09.08.2019 analysis

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 25.8103

The last trading day of the week promises to be extremely boring for the EUR/USD pair. No macroeconomic publications are planned for either the US or the European Union on August 9, so there will be nothing for traders in the forex currency market to respond to. Moreover, in the last two days, the pair followed the example of its neighbors, the GBP/USD pair, and went into an open flat. Even Donald Trump's new angry tweets with a new portion of Fed criticism did not help. In general, the pair has adjusted to the moving average line, but still maintains an upward trend even though both channels of linear regression are directed downwards. From our point of view, the US currency has much more prospects than the euro. Although according to many experts and traders, the US currency is now highly overrated (Trump's applause), there are no good fundamental reasons for long-term purchases of the euro. The Fed has taken a course to reduce the key rate, but the ECB is also preparing to lower its rate. That is, both central banks are preparing for easing. Thus, the balance of power between them has not changed. As for macroeconomic statistics, the European one has not been pleased with traders for a long time, the American – began to disappoint only recently, but still looks more convincing. As for the trade war, the prospects of the States in it are not very bright, but at the same time, the market has shown its readiness to respond to specific deterioration of economic data due to the trade conflict with China, and not to verbal squabbles of Trump and Xi Jinping or information about the failure of the next round of negotiations.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.1047

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair is still above the moving average. Therefore, purchases of the euro remain relevant, after the completion of the current correction and overcoming the Murray level of "4/8", with a target of 1.1292. It is recommended to sell the pair with the target of 1.1108, if the bears consolidate below the moving.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

*Анализът на пазара публикуван тук има за цел да повиши информираността Ви, но не и да дава указания за търговия.

Paolo Greco,
Аналитичен експерт на InstaForex
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