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15.10.2020 09:42 AM
Hot forecast and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on 10/15/2020

If the macroeconomic calendar is empty, then never ending Brexit comes to the aid. It became the reason why the pound erratically grew yesterday. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson seemed to have forgotten everything that he had said before, and even what he had promised his voters, and declared that Great Britain does not intend to leave the European Union without a trade deal. That is, despite the apparent lack of progress in talks, as repeatedly stated by the negotiators from both London and Brussels, as well as countless threats from Johnson, the United Kingdom intends to continue the dialogue. And these statements are being made literally a day before the summit of the European Union, which will consider the progress of negotiations on a trade deal. Which is simply not there. Although even such a formulation of the question plays in favor of the pound, since it was previously assumed that the heads of the EU countries had to accept or reject the agreement during this summit. But it still does not exist, so there is nothing to consider. Moreover, talks were recently extended for a month, that is, until November 15. Nevertheless, a number of statements on this issue can be made today. And their essence will boil down to disappointment about the lack of progress. Moreover, the United Kingdom will be the culprit. And this clearly does not contribute to the pound's growth. And yesterday the sterling grew quite significantly, so the local correction looks like a completely logical development of events.

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At the same time, market participants were so surprised by Johnson's words that they literally ignored yesterday's data on producer prices in the United States. The data showed that the decline of -0.2% was replaced by an increase of 0.4%. Therefore, we should expect further inflation in the United States.

Producer prices (United States):

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Most likely, today's data on applications for unemployment benefits will also remain unaddressed. Everyone will be waiting for the outcome of the Brexit discussion at the EU summit. Although the data is expected to be quite good. The number of initial applications should increase from 840,000 to 845,000. But the number of repeated applications may decrease from 10,976,000 to 10,650,000. So the duration of unemployment continues to decrease, which is an extremely positive factor.

Repetitive Unemployment Insurance Claims (United States):

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The GBPUSD pair showed an active upward interest in the flow of information on Brexit, where the quote once again returned to the psychological level of 1.3000, leaving behind the inertial price movement. The main resistance is the peak of the corrective move at 1.3080, where a stop occurred near it.

If we proceed from the quote's current location, then we can see a primary pullback towards the 1.3000 level, where activity is reduced, and in the outlines of fluctuations one can see stagnation at 1.3005/1.3030.

A high degree of speculative interest is recorded regarding volatility, which has resulted in the recent inertial price movement.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, we can see a corrective move from the local low of 1.2674, which is considered relevant to the current day since the price returned to its recent high.

We can assume that since the pound's price significantly changed yesterday, a pullback or stagnation may occur today, which would be logical in terms of the sequence of technical analysis. We can expect the development of short positions when the price has settled below 1.3000, in the direction of 1.2950. In turn, the information background will continue to put pressure on the market, which may violate the logic of technical analysis.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments signal a buy due to the price returning to the area above the 1.3000 level.

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Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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