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05.05.2021 06:56 PM
Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on May 6? Analysis of Wednesday. Getting ready for Thursday

Analysis of previous deals:

30M chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair was trading in the most boring and dull manner on Wednesday. The pair changed the direction of its movement several times during the day, and with very low volatility too as it remained stuck between two trend lines. The price still gravitated towards a downward movement, but this does not mean anything concrete. The most important thing now is to wait for the quote to surpass one of the trend lines in order to receive, firstly, a strong signal, and secondly, a new trend. There was only one signal that was generated on the 30-minute timeframe, which deserves attention. The indicator turned down near the zero level, but went down only 25 points after that. Although the closest level (1.1990) has been reached, in any case, this is not the level of profit that we expected. And it was very difficult to count on more, since there is an upward trend line next to it, which the quote also needs to surpass. And in any case, in yesterday's article, we did not recommend trading by MACD signals today, since there is no clear trend at this time.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

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Now let's take a look at the 5 minute timeframe. As usual, the picture is much more interesting. First, you should take note of the fact that the 1.1999 level has been canceled, since the price has surpassed it 5-6 times during the day, therefore, it is no longer a strong level, around which we can expect signals to form. We plotted all of today's potential signals in the form of circles on the chart, but only the first two should be considered and worked out. First, a sell signal was generated - the price crossed the 1.1999 level, but the downward movement did not continue and a new upward movement began from the 1.1990 level. Thus, according to this signal, one could get either a profit of 5 points or lose 5 points. Next, you should open long positions, because the price bounced off the 1.1990 level, and also crossed the 1.1999 level, which was still relevant then. However, the price went up by 25 points even after the first signal was formed, which was not enough to trigger the Take Profit order. The price, of course, did not reach the nearest level of 1.2044 either. In general, volatility was quite low today. Thus, a buy trade was closed by Stop Loss at breakeven, and there was no need to open new trades today, since the first two turned out to be false. Moreover, then the price crossed the 1.1999 level several more times, generating more and more false signals each time. Macroeconomic reports were also not very interesting today. The first is the EU service business activity report, the second is the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the US private sector, the third is the ISM index for the US service sector. As you can see, a more or less tangible market reaction followed only the ADP report.

How to trade on Thursday:

On Thursday, the pair will continue to remain stuck between two trend lines for the first time. Thus, the key value will be which of the trend lines the price will be able to surpass (if it will be able to go over at least some). Surpassing any trend line will serve as a buy or sell signal. It is recommended to ignore signals from the MACD indicator before breaking any trend line. You are advised to trade from the levels of 1.1990, 1.2027 and 1.2044 on the 5-minute timeframe for a rebound or breakthrough in both directions. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. Recall that it is best to trade using the most accurate and clear signals, and ignore inaccurate ones. The US is set to publish only a relatively important report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. In the European Union, the retail sales report will be published and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (the most important event of the day) will deliver a speech as well.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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