04.10.2022: Markets show signs of stabilizing. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB, BRL
Oil prices seem to be relatively stable. In fact, a slight advance in oil prices is largely due solely to a weaker dollar. Thus, the market situation has barely changed.
Investors are awaiting the outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Oil producers are likely to agree on an oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day. Amid these expectations, oil managed to post slight gains. If the cartel does adopt this decision, the quotes will break through the mark of $90 per barrel and then head towards $100 per barrel. However, the meeting will take place only tomorrow. Until then, the market situation is expected to remain unchanged.
From a technical point of view, Brent crude oil futures are moving around the resistance level of $90 per barrel with a view to overcoming it. A breakout signal will be confirmed in case the price stays firm above this mark (90.00) at least on the four-hour chart. Until then, the risk of a rebound remains.
In the meantime, gold gained strong upside momentum, unexpectedly rising above $1,700 per ounce. This can be attributed to speculation, which caused a move in the opposite direction from expectations ahead of an important event such as the release of data on Eurozone producer prices. Obviously, surging inflation in Europe will force the European Central Bank to raise interest rates more aggressively than previously expected. Higher producer prices will make investors think that prices will gradually decline. By late trade, the yellow metal may fall below $1,700 per ounce again. Moreover, an overbought signal in short time frames may lead to a slowdown in the upward cycle. The medium-term fundamental outlook for gold remains the same. The price is likely to drop below $1,600 per ounce.
However, if this move is indeed inertial, a signal of overbought conditions may be ignored by traders. In this case, the asset may head for the level of 1,730.
Now let's consider the situation in the market of commodity currencies: the ruble and Brazil's real.
Despite increased volatility, the ruble is steady.
The dollar is still trading within the range of 58-59 rubles. Moreover, there are no signs of a trend change. As for the long run, the ruble is gradually gaining value. The situation may change only if the Ministry of Finance resumes its foreign exchange interventions. Until then, the Russian currency is likely to keep posting modest gains.
The results of the first round of Brazil's presidential election spurred a sharp rally in the Brazilian real. Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva held a solid polling lead going into Sunday's election, although the Brazilian economy was experiencing hard times during his time in office. Most experts attribute this to the extremely costly and ineffective social policy pursued by Lula. At the same time, far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro won more votes than polls had suggested, thus going to a second round run-off. This gave investors hope that the government will maintain its current economic policy, which is more balanced for major businesses. This means that Brazil's investment climate will remain favorable.
According to the trading chart, this event led to increased speculative activity. As a result, the Brazilian real surged by almost 5% against the US dollar. Although this price change is considered strong, there are no dramatic changes from a technical point of view. In fact, the quote returned to its September levels. Based on the levels with high trading activity posted in August-September, it is worth focusing on 5.15, 5.10, and 5.00.

00:00 Introduction
00:15 Situation on the oil market
00:53 Brent
01:17 Gold
02:31 Now - about the ruble and the Brazilian real
02:42 USD/RUB
03:06 Political and economic situation in Brazil
04:36 USD/BRL
05:06 Conclusion


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