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24.11,2022: USD weakens amid clear signs of recession. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
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27.01.2023: Wall Street evaluating consumer spending and corporate earnings.
2023-01-27 19:10 UTC+3
27.01.2023: US may avoid recession. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
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Unexpectedly weak macroeconomic reports from the US led to a further depreciation of the US dollar. Notably, the US currency has long been extremely oversold. Since the beginning of November, the euro has gained about 500 pips, whereas the pound sterling has added approximately 600 pips.
Even a 0.1% rise in the US durable goods orders failed to improve the situation. The fact is that the labor market conditions are worsening every week. Thus, the number of first-time claims surged by 17,000 instead of 6,000. The number of continuing claims soared by 48,000, whereas economists had expected a rise of just 7,000.
Now, the number of unemployment claims is bigger than in April. Then, the number of claims was falling amid the labor market recovery after the coronavirus restrictions. Now, the number of claims is constantly growing. There is no doubt that the US unemployment rate will surge. The overall situation is also aggravated by the concerns about the approaching recession. A weak labor market will only intensify the economic slowdown and make it longer.
Preliminary data on the US manufacturing PMI also disappointed traders. The indicator slumped to 47.6 points from 50.4 points. Economists had foreseen a smaller drop to 50.1 points. In other words, US producers are expecting a slump in US production amid rising risks. Although at the moment, the US production is showing better performance than the European one, this will hardly last long.
The US data reflected a confident movement towards a recession, which led to a deeper drop in the greenback. In the next few days, the currencies are likely to trade at the current levels. Today and tomorrow, US markets are closed. Traders will hardly take a risk amid the absence of the biggest traders, namely US financial institutions.
What do we see on the trading charts? After the euro/dollar pair climbed above 1.0300, the volume of long positions increased. As a result, we saw a full-scale recovery after the recent correction from the resistance level of 1.0500.
Since in the last 24 hours, the pair has been confidently gaining in value, long positions on the euro have become overheated on the daily chart. That is why the upward movement may slacken or the pair may bounce. The level of 1.0500 is still acting as resistance.
Notably, a technical signal of the euro’s overbought conditions could be ignored by speculators. In this case, the price consolidation above 1.0500 on the daily chart will allow the pair to rise even higher.
Meanwhile, the pound/dollar pair left the sideways channel of 1.1750/1.1950 by breaking the upper limit. Against the backdrop, the volume of long positions surged, thus causing an inertial upward movement. As a result, the quote surpassed the psychological level of 1.2000.
Under the current conditions, we see a technical signal of the pound’s overbought conditions in the short-term periods. This may lead to a short-lived slackening of the upward cycle and a bounce. If the price consolidates above 1.2050, it will have more chances to climb higher after a change in the market sentiment.

00:00 Introduction
00:27 The situation in the US labor market
00:51 Unemployment growth
01:29 US Manufacturing PMI
02:05 Dollar and Thanksgiving
02:32 EUR/USD
03:29 GBP/USD
04:17 Conclusion

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日历和评论
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Trader’s calendar on January 2-4: How financial markets to start 2023?
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Considering St. Petersburg's business status, InstaForex holds its annual conferences for its partners, traders, and potential clients here. The new event took place in one of the most prestigious hotels of St. Petersburg Marriott Renaissance. Traditionally, the conference focused on the most relevant topics of currency trading and opportunities provided by investments in the forex market.
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