The Western media reported yesterday that OPEC+ intended to boost oil production by 500,000 barrels per day. As a result, oil prices fell below $84 per barrel. However, their quick return to the area of $87 per barrel indicates there is no room left to move further to the downside, at least for the time being.
Over the past two weeks, oil has already lost more than 10 dollars. The main reason for such a steep decline was concerns over a looming recession and a related decline in aggregate demand. Apparently, market participants went overboard in reacting, since even the news about a possible increase in output had no severe response. Nevertheless, fundamental factors affecting oil are now rather negative, which clearly limits its growth potential. Thus, the market will most likely remain around ​​current levels.
Moreover, market participants are awaiting Washington's decision on a Russian oil price cap to be announced in the coming days, probably this week. However, it remains to be seen how the market will react to it. Much will depend on the mechanisms and parameters of this very restriction.
From a technical point of view, Brent crude oil futures slid by 5%, coming close to the level of $82 per barrel. Such a sharp price change in about 2 hours pushed the quote into oversold territory, which in turn led to an increase in the volume of long positions. As a result, the asset managed to pare losses and return to the levels where it was at the start of the trading session. Given that speculative activity has been replaced by a sideways trend, further things will depend on the asset’s next move. So, if the price consolidates above 88.50, Brent crude will most likely gain value. In case the price fixes below 85.80, short interest will rise.
Gold continues to hover around $1,740 per ounce, with no response to yesterday's statistics on German producer prices. Interestingly, the foreign exchange market showed a strong reaction to a rather significant slowdown in their growth rates. After all, this data indicates signs of cooling inflation in the euro area as well as subsequent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. However, investors apparently do not intend to make hasty conclusions. Gold is still extremely overbought, so speculation alone is not enough for its rally. In addition, major central banks intend to further increase interest rates, which will keep exerting pressure on the yellow metal.
Technical analysis indicates that gold futures are in a correction. The asset has already dipped by about 2.5%. If market sentiment remains unchanged, the metal will most likely head towards the support level of 1,700.
Now let’s move on to the commodity asset - the ruble. Last week, the Russian currency traded closer to 60 rubles per dollar. Now it has moved to the level of 61 rubles. Obviously, market participants are awaiting the US decision on a Russian oil price cap. Much will depend not only on its parameters but also on implementation mechanisms. Given that most countries have opposed the initiative, the focus of traders will be on the way Washington will try to make it come into effect. So, the ruble is expected to continue trading around 61 rubles per dollar until the United States announces its decision.
To gain upside momentum, the quote needs to consolidate above the level of 61.50 on the four-hour chart. Otherwise, the market will remain flat.
That’s all for now. We wish you profitable deals. See you on our channel with a new video in a couple of hours!

00:00 Introduction
00:30 Situation on the oil market
01:10 The market is waiting for the decision of the United States on the marginal cost of Russian oil 01:33 Brent
02:26 Gold
03:40 USD/RUB
04:43 Conclusion

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