02.12.2022: Focus on upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
01.02.2023: Wall Street anticipating red-hot forecast for 2023.
2023-02-01 19:29 UTC+3
01.02.2023: How results of FOMC meeting may affect European currencies? EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-02-01 17:01 UTC+3
01.02.2023: Fed meeting in focus. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-02-01 16:59 UTC+3
01.02.2023: USD trapped in narrow range; outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-02-01 14:32 UTC+3
31.01.2023: Investors revising portfolios ahead of Fed verdict (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin).
2023-01-31 19:45 UTC+3
31.01.2023: Crucial moment for European currencies. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
2023-01-31 16:33 UTC+3
31.01.2023: Markets await Fed and ECB meetings. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-01-31 16:03 UTC+3
30.01.2023: Wall Street expresses risk aversion ahead of central banks’ meetings.
2023-01-30 19:44 UTC+3
30.01.2023: ECB influences market more than Fed. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
2023-01-30 16:49 UTC+3
30.01.2023: USD begins week on higher note. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-01-30 15:11 UTC+3
27.01.2023: Wall Street evaluating consumer spending and corporate earnings.
2023-01-27 19:10 UTC+3
27.01.2023: US may avoid recession. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-01-27 15:14 UTC+3
27.01.2023: USD stuck in narrow range; outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD
2023-01-27 14:24 UTC+3
26.01.2023: Wall Street in limbo (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin).
2023-01-26 19:40 UTC+3
25.01.2023: Signs of recession in US may boost EUR and GBP. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-01-26 17:25 UTC+3
26.01.2023: Oil prices settle unchanged despite weaker dollar. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-01-26 16:21 UTC+3
26.01.2023: Speculators await crucial economic data; outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-01-26 15:32 UTC+3
25.01.2023: Wall Street clouded by pessimism (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin).
2023-01-25 20:23 UTC+3
25.01.2023: USD to go on falling? Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-01-25 18:12 UTC+3
25.01.2023: Oil prices pull back. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-01-25 15:08 UTC+3
25.01.2023: USD and JPY choppy ahead of crucial data; outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-01-25 15:06 UTC+3
The European Union still cannot agree on the Russian oil price ceiling. The impending ban on Russian crude oil imports adds to investor anxiety, thus resulting in market jitters. Yesterday, oil prices rose to $89 per barrel.
This is the way markets are pricing in an easing of China's strict COVID-19 curbs. Given that the country is the largest importer and consumer of oil, such news is encouraging and contributes to higher oil prices. At the same time, do not forget about the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which may end with a decision to cut oil production.
Still, oil prices returned to the $86 area following reports that the European Union made some progress in discussing the Russian oil price cap. This somewhat calmed the market as the idea of ​​introducing a price cap is still much better than an embargo, especially on the world’s second largest oil exporter. Otherwise, this will lead to catastrophic consequences such as severe energy shortages and a steep rise in energy prices. If Brussels is able to come to an agreement today, oil prices will most likely post moderate losses. Later on, market participants will shift their focus to Russia’s response. This in turn will determine further dynamics in the energy market.
From a technical point of view, there was less than 1% left for Brent crude oil futures to reach the key resistance level of $90, but a technical rebound occurred. Notably, the asset has added over 10% since the beginning of the trading week. Thus, its current pullback is attributed to overbought conditions.
After the price completes its pullback and consolidates above the $90 level on the four-hour chart, the volume of long positions will increase further.
It does not matter whether the European Union imposes an embargo on Russian oil or introduces a price cap, this is an exclusively negative factor for the ruble in the short term. Only retaliatory measures can offset its impact. However, the Russian government has repeatedly stated that it will halt deliveries to those countries that join this initiative. In other words, the situation remains uncertain. This also contributes to a weaker ruble.
Against this background, the dollar rose above 61 rubles, which came as no surprise. If the price stays firm above the 62 mark, the dollar/ruble pair will most likely extend gains and hit 65 rubles in a few days. Just at this time, Russia’s position and response will apparently become clear. Interestingly, its economy has been the main contributor to the ruble’s strength in recent months.
Speaking of gold, a weaker dollar allowed the quote to rally to $1,800 per ounce. Given the growth rate of gold prices and expectations regarding today's report from the US Labor Department, there is a likelihood that the yellow metal will edge higher to 1,810 or 1,820 dollars per ounce. However, this will happen only in the North American trading session. If US jobs data comes in stronger than expected, gold will gradually move towards the level of 1,750 dollars per ounce.

00:00 Introduction
00:22 The situation on the oil market
00:50 The European Union is still thinking about a ceiling on Russian oil prices
01:44 Brent
02:21 EU decision and the ruble
02:58 USD/RUB
03:28 Gold
04:09 Conclusion


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