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24.11.2022: USD fails to maintain bullish momentum; outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD
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2023-02-03 19:23 UTC+3
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2023-01-31 16:33 UTC+3
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30.01.2023: Wall Street expresses risk aversion ahead of central banks’ meetings.
2023-01-30 19:44 UTC+3
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2023-01-30 16:49 UTC+3
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27.01.2023: Wall Street evaluating consumer spending and corporate earnings.
2023-01-27 19:10 UTC+3
27.01.2023: US may avoid recession. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-01-27 15:14 UTC+3
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2023-01-27 14:24 UTC+3
26.01.2023: Wall Street in limbo (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin).
2023-01-26 19:40 UTC+3
Hi everyone! Optimism on Wall Street improved following the release of the Fed meeting minutes. Today, US and Asian stocks are extending gains.

However, trading was lackadaisical in the morning as the US celebrates Thanksgiving Day. Apart from that, growth is also limited by uncertainty over the coronavirus situation in China.

According to the minutes, the majority of Fed policymakers stated that it would be appropriate to move to a slower pace of rate hikes. It may help the regulator better assess the results of monetary tightening. However, Fed members are also uncertain how much time it will take before inflation starts declining. Following the last meeting, Jerome Powell stressed that the Fed is nowhere near declaring victory over high inflation. Other policymakers have been making hawkish remarks for several weeks after the meeting. They pointed out that more rate hikes are needed to tame inflation.

After that meeting, investors digested lots of economic reports, which somewhat convinced them about a 50 basis point rate hike in December. A contraction in the PMI indices for the fifth month in a row also suggests the likelihood of smaller rate hikes. The Manufacturing PMI Index fell below 50 for the first time since 2020. However, consumer spending and the labor market have remained resilient so far. It helped the US avoid a recession. The Fed was able to stay committed to aggressive tightening. Investors are closely following fresh economic and inflation data, looking for any signs that the Fed could switch to a softer stance. Judging by the FedWatch Tool, they are now betting on such a scenario. Currently, 75.8% of traders are anticipating a 50 basis point rate hike in December.

The US dollar dropped sharply across the board, especially versus the euro and the yen, amid expectations of a smaller rate hike. After declining below the support level of 106, it may soon test the three-month low of 105.34.

This scenario looks likely if risk appetite persists. Having lost 5.1% in November, the US dollar is likely to notch its worst monthly performance in 12 years. In the Asian session, the US dollar index dipped to 105.95, moving towards the lower border of the range of 105.6-106.1.

However, analysts warn that investors are overly optimistic about the potential change of the Fed’s stance in December and the sell-off will hardly last for a long time. Inflation in the US is soaring. The Fed is still unable to push it to its 2% target. In addition, demand for the US dollar remains high amid the Zero-Covid Policy in China.

The greenback could have lost momentum because of the latest inflation data, which turned out to be below forecasts and undermined the rally of US Treasuries. Naturally, the yen took advantage of the situation, climbing against the greenback for the third day in a row.

In the morning, the dollar/yen pair managed to touch its weekly low near the 138.80 level. The bears tried to push it to the support level of 138.4. In the Asian session, the pair was mainly declining in the price corridor of 138.6-139.7. Although the yen has already approached the uptrend line of 138.9, there are plenty of factors that may limit its further rise. The outlook for the pair remains bearish.

The Australian dollar is now trying to break through the pivot level of 0.6800. Its bullish momentum is subdued because of falling demand for commodities and concerns about stricter lockdowns in China. However, it won luster with investors thanks to increased risk appetite and optimism in the stock market.

The AUD/USD pair was trading at 0.6745 in the Asian session amid the weakening of the greenback. Today, it extended its two-day winning streak, moving steadily in the upward range of 0.6726-0.6770.

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00:00 INTRO
00:26 US Fed
01:05 CME FEDWATCH TOOL
02:05 USDX
03:14 USD/JPY
04:08 AUD/USD
日历和评论
Trader’s calendar on February 6-8: News determines market sentiment.
Trader’s calendar on February 2-3: ECB and BoE catching up with US Fed.
Trader’s calendar on January 30- February 1: Fed’s rate decision keeps traders in suspense.
Trader’s calendar on January 26-27: USD facing challenge.
Trader’s calendar on January 12-13: US Fed beats inflation?
Trader’s calendar on January 5-6: Recession fears resurface in financial markets.
编辑选择
The face of InstaForex Company Ilona Korstin, successfully playing for the Spanish basketball team Avenida, invited InstaForex TV team to Salamanca to see the final game of Spain Championship. In addition to the basketball play-off which Ilona had won, the journalists visited the places of interest in Salamanca: the oldest European University - in olden times such persons as Cervantes, Calderуn and Lope de Vega were studying here. InstaTV team also had a chance to admire cathedrals and castles of Spanish Renaissance.
Graeme Lowdon, Sporting Director of Marussia F1 Team, speaks about the racing results (Formula One Grand Prix in Singapore)
Trader’s calendar on February 6-8: News determines market sentiment.
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