05.10.2022: Oil edges higher as OPEC+ mulls output cut. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
Oil traders are excited today as they are awaiting the announcement of the OPEC+ decision taken during its latest meeting. Market participants expect the cartel and its allies to cut oil output by 1 or even 2 million barrels per day.
The world's top oil producers may well come to such a decision in an attempt to prop up falling prices. Notably, a recent decline in oil quotes stems from quarantine measures in China, the largest energy consumer, as well as growing threats of a global recession.
In addition, the upcoming EU ban on Russian crude exports, which will come into force in December, and the US intention to impose a price cap on Russian oil contribute to higher energy prices. After all, in response to such measures, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to cut off energy supplies to the West. Russia is not going to export oil to the world market at below-market prices, which is the right solution under market economy conditions.
As a result, Brent crude oil futures overcame the resistance level of $90 per barrel, which signaled a continued uptrend. Thusm, the benchmark is expected to extend gains and face the nearest resistance levels of $93 and $95.50.
A scenario suggesting a downward movement will be relevant only after the price returns below $90.
As expected, gold paused its rally after the US dollar halted its slide. The markets are once again mulling over signals from the Fed regarding its further steps. According to the US central bank, a shift to a dovish stance is dangerous and it is necessary to keep lifting interest rates to combat surging inflation. Yesterday, traders questioned the Fed’s hawkish approach due to the indecisive actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which decided to raise interest rates by a smaller-than-expected 25 basis points. Thus, gold futures came close to the predicted level of $1,730 per troy ounce, where the volume of long positions decreased. As a result, the market started to move sideways and then pulled back. Although the asset has added more than 7% lately, technical experts still point to more upside potential. So if the price consolidates above the level of 1,736 on the four-hour chart, gold may well resume its bullish run.
The dollar/ruble chart also shows that upside momentum has fizzled out.
The tax period in Russia ended last week and thus ceased to support the Russian currency. Market participants are now focused on the eighth package of EU sanctions against Russia, which may put pressure on the ruble. However, there has been no drastic change so far. As before, the quote is moving slightly below the level of 60 rubles per dollar.

00:00 Introduction
00:21 Oil prices
00:40 EU ban on Russian oil and Russia's response
01:10 Brent
01:34 Gold
02:40 USD/RUB
03:10 Conclusion

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