18.11.2022: Winter looms, global energy consumption falls. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
06.02.2023: Wall Street opens in gloomy mood (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin).
2023-02-06 19:12 UTC+3
06.02.2023: USD may go on gaining in value. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
2023-02-06 17:27 UTC+3
06.02.2023: Oil, gold sharply down after robust US jobs data. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-02-06 17:12 UTC+3
06.02.2023: USD rallies after robust US jobs data. Outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-02-06 14:43 UTC+3
03.02.2023: Wall Street braced for another sell-offs (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin).
2023-02-03 19:23 UTC+3
03.02.2023: More expensive dollar to influence overall situation? Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-02-03 16:33 UTC+3
03.02.2023: Crude oil traders await US jobs report. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-02-03 15:04 UTC+3
03.02.2023: USD flexes muscles; outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-02-03 14:17 UTC+3
02.02.2023: High-tech sector extending its rally. Wall Street alert to AAA reports.
2023-02-02 19:46 UTC+3
02.02.2023: USD to go on falling? Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-02-02 16:58 UTC+3
02.02.2023: USD slumps following Powell’s dovish statements; USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-02-02 14:21 UTC+3
01.02.2023: Wall Street anticipating red-hot forecast for 2023.
2023-02-01 19:29 UTC+3
01.02.2023: How results of FOMC meeting may affect European currencies? EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-02-01 17:01 UTC+3
01.02.2023: Fed meeting in focus. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-02-01 16:59 UTC+3
01.02.2023: USD trapped in narrow range; outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
2023-02-01 14:32 UTC+3
31.01.2023: Investors revising portfolios ahead of Fed verdict (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin).
2023-01-31 19:45 UTC+3
31.01.2023: Crucial moment for European currencies. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
2023-01-31 16:33 UTC+3
31.01.2023: Markets await Fed and ECB meetings. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-01-31 16:03 UTC+3
30.01.2023: Wall Street expresses risk aversion ahead of central banks’ meetings.
2023-01-30 19:44 UTC+3
30.01.2023: ECB influences market more than Fed. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
2023-01-30 16:49 UTC+3
30.01.2023: USD begins week on higher note. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-01-30 15:11 UTC+3
Investors are concerned about the epidemiological situation again. China with its zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy has reported new infections. This means the country's authorities may well impose tighter control measures, which in turn will lead to lower energy demand by China, the world's biggest energy consumer.
In addition, the risk increases in the face of a looming recession. Major central banks continue to fight high inflation by raising interest rates. However, this results in more expensive loans, thus hindering business development.
At the same time, a steeper drop in oil quotes is limited by uncertainty about energy supplies to European countries ahead of winter. Notably, the European Union is set to stop buying all Russian crude oil delivered by sea from early December. A sharp fall in temperatures in Europe will only increase energy wasted in heating homes and contribute to a rise in natural gas prices. In addition, investors are mulling over the news that a major US liquefied gas producer is forced to delay deliveries to Europe as it has failed to resume operation at full capacity following an explosion and fire erupted at its export terminal in June. Obviously, sanctions targeting Russian energy will be very costly for Europe.
From a technical point of view, Brent crude oil dipped to $90 per barrel after sellers broke through the support level of $92. To extend a downtrend, the price needs to first fix below the 90 mark and then hit 87.50, the low posted on October 18. In theory, this could add to short interest in the market.
Meanwhile, gold remains relatively stable. Although the quote pulled back down from $1,780 to $1,755, it still has a chance of resuming its upward cycle. In addition, Bloomberg analysts predict that the volume of long positions on gold could increase sharply in the near future. According to them, a subsequent rise in gold prices could level the volume of transactions on the ETF GLD exchange index - the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund, which still does not reflect the recent increase in gold prices.
As for a bearish scenario, the price needs to fix below the 1,750 mark on the daily chart. Aggressive interest rate hikes by major central banks remain a negative factor for the yellow metal.
Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard suggested that the federal funds rate could reach the 5% to 7% range next year. Besides, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that it is not yet time to “step down” from large hikes. Nevertheless, analysts are sure that the economy cannot but react to such drastic steps and is expected to slide into a recession in the near future. This in turn may lead to a resumed rally in gold prices. Experts say that the Fed’s first rate cut could push the metal up by 20-30%.
Likewise, the ruble remains stable despite the results of the OFZ treasury bond auction. At the moment, the level of 60 rubles per dollar is seen as an obstacle, where the price has formed a sideways range. So it remains only to monitor the price behavior near this level. If the price rebounds from it, or breaks through, it will be possible to determine the pair’s next move.

00:00 Introduction
00:28 Situation on the oil market
00:46 Energy situation in the Eurozone
01:46 Brent
02:13 Gold
03:17 Fed interest rate
04:05 USD/RUB
04:39 Conclusion


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