16.04.2021: Oil extends its rally (Brent, WTI, USD/RUB, EUR/RUB)

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On Thursday, the ruble declined sharply but managed to rebound later in the day. This was the reaction of the Russian currency to the US sanctions against Russia and the phone call between the leaders of the two countries. However, there may be more factors to influence the quotes of oil and the ruble. Apart from politics, economic data may also determine the market sentiment. Thus, the macroeconomic data from China was published this morning and it turned out to be worse that expected. Industrial production in China decreased in March which could signal a possible decline in fuel demand. Therefore, oil traders should especially pay attention to this report. Meanwhile, oil is extending gains amid a rising US stock market and falling crude inventories in the US. However, the growth potential may soon reach its peak. So, experts assume that oil will settle in a stable price channel. Besides, the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic in India and Europe in particular downgrades the outlook for oil. In addition, lower industrial production volumes in China limit the bullish sentiment. Brent crude is expected to trade between 65.00 and 70.00 dollars per barrel. North American crude WTI is following a similar trajectory. Today, WTI reached the level of 63 dollars 50 cents per barrel. According to analysts, it will hold in the price channel between 62 and 66 dollars a barrel. Now let’s take a look at the dollar/ruble pair. Judging by yesterday’s trajectory, the ruble managed to assert its strength and regained ground after the negative impact from the US sanctions. This may be due to the fact that markets expected a much stronger response. On the other hand, experts admit that it could be the interventions from the Central Bank of Russia that supported the ruble yesterday. We will monitor the ruble’s behavior in the coming sessions to see which tendency will finally prevail. The dollar/ruble pair is seen trading between 75.50 and 76.20 in the near term. Today, the US dollar was trading at 76.50 against the ruble. As for the euro/ruble pair, it followed the same trend as the US dollar. At the same time, the European currency has faced strong resistance on Forex on its way to the level of 1.2000. It will soon become clear whether the euro will manage to move higher or will still decline. The downtrend is highly likely for the euro as it is being under pressure from the third Covid-19 wave in the EU. On Friday, the euro/ruble pair settled at 91.25 and is forecast to stay in the range of 90.30 to 92.20 rubles per euro. This trading week is closing at a moderately positive note. Even the Russian market has probably reached a balance in the short term. Firstly, a speech by Joe Biden gives hope that no new sanctions are planned in the near term. Secondly, the market has factored in the scenario with more serious restrictions which has not come true. However, both financial markets and geopolitical situation are prone to quick changes. So, we will keep monitoring further developments.

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