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Investors radiated reserved optimism as to the Fed’s reduction in the pace of hiking rates, following subdued Black Friday sales results. In addition, bearish sentiment in the global stock market soared due to protests in China.
Anger is growing at Beijing's zero-COVID strategy. With businesses closing and families being isolated in their homes for weeks, often with limited access to food and medicine, the situation has become critical and triggered China’s biggest protests in recent years.
After a deadly fire in an apartment building in Urumqi, protests have erupted across the country. With continuing zero-COVID policy, demonstrations, and new COVID-19 cases, the health of the Chinese economy becomes increasingly hard to predict, which in turn puts markets in the Asia-Pacific region under even greater pressure.
Meanwhile, the greenback has somewhat strengthened amid China’s COVID unrest and investors’ concerns over further strong rate hikes by the US Fed. Additional support comes from US Treasury yields. The US dollar index, tracking the price of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies, is consolidating in the range of 105.6–106.5.
Last week, the dollar sank significantly on the back of a national holiday celebration and the dovish FOMC Minutes.
This week, investors will focus on the speech of the Fed Chairman due on Wednesday as he may give some clues as to the future stance on monetary policy.
Jerome Powell has already warned that the regulator may continue hiking rates aggressively. So, the greenback may feel additional support from the Fed in the final days of November. Above all else, the dollar index as a safe-haven asset is strengthening amid protests in China, trading at 105.6 during the Asian session.
In the meantime, the Japanese yen is trading lower against the dollar. Currently, the quote is moving down in the range of 137.8.
Meanwhile, expectations of a less hawkish Fed provide support for the yen, especially following the statement of Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, who said today that there was still no need in reviewing the central bank’s policy.
On Monday, with an increase in risk aversion, the yen is going down against the US dollar in the price corridor of 137.5–139.5. Should the quote fall below 138, it may then drop to 135.8–135.6. Alternatively, the bulls may attempt to push the price above the barrier of 140.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe also commented on the situation in the market and signaled a flexible approach to monetary policy, even despite a fall in retail sales figures in October.
This month, the RBA raised interest rates by 0.25%, less than expected. And there is now growing speculation in the market that the bank will again be dovish in December. In this light, the measures of the Reserve Bank of Australia aimed at strengthening the national currency do not seem to be very effective.
In the meantime, the Aussie dollar is feeling pressure from the stronger US dollar and China’s unrest. Additional pressure comes from oil prices that trade at their 2022 low today.
Earlier on Monday, the Australian dollar tumbled to 0.6710. During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is still moving down between 0.6754 resistance and 0.6665 support.
The bears are trying to regain control over the market with the price hovering near the key support level of 0.6690. The Aussie dollar is about to fall steeply. However, if the currency consolidates above the psychological level of 0.6775, it may then quickly return to the monthly high of 0.6800 with the target seen at around the September high of 0.6915.
As we can see the situation in the market changes fast and largely depends on the news stream. This trading week is going to be busy and marked with numerous macro releases in the United States and the eurozone.
Have a nice and productive trading week. See you in our next videos.
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