If the manufacturing activity in the country remains seriously disrupted, this may lead to a slow and weak recovery of China’s economy, analysts at Morgan Stanley warn. According to their forecast, if the peak of the virus outbreak falls on April 2020, China’s industrial sector will have been already derailed in March. Under this scenario, China’s economic growth in the first quarter could fall to as low as 3.5%. The GDP growth rate, in this case, is expected to reach 4.6% in the first half of the year, while later it is unlikely to exceed 6.5%. By the end of 2020, specialists estimate the full-year GDP growth to be 5.6%.