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USD has been the dominant currency in the pair while GBP struggled to regain momentum. As a result, the price settled down at near 1.2500 with a daily close recently.

The UK economy has going through troubled times on the back of the looming Brexit issue. British finance minister Philip Hammond recently said that it was a terrifying idea about Britain which could be better off by leaving the EU without an exit deal. Hammond warned that a no-deal exit from the EU could badly damage the British economy. Moreover, the size of the Bank of England's balance sheet is likely to roughly halve when it reverses quantitative easing to around 275-375 GBP. The impact of such QE is expected to impact the UK GDP roughly by 12-18% margin.

Today UK CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 2.0%, PPI Input slumped to -1.4% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at -1.0%, HPI fell to 1.2% as expected from the previous value of 1.5%, and PPI Output also dropped to -0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.1%.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve and other leading central banks are declaring that the peak in global interest rates has been reached. So, global centrla banks are ready to start the cycle of monetary easing. Recently Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a rate cut as the global economy is losing steam and the trade war between the US and China continues to impact the overall growth of the economy. Powell has assured Americans that the central bank is committed to keeping the economy on track. With inflation running below the Fed's 2% target, officials have scope to ease, though some one may worry about fanning investor appetite for risk amid hefty corporate borrowing with US stocks around record highs.

Recently US Retail Sales report was published without any change at 0.4% which was expected to decrease to 0.1% but Import Prices declined to -0.9% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at -0.7%. Today US Building Permits report was posted with a decrease to 1.22M from the previous figure of 1.30M and Housing Starts decreased to 1.25M from the previous figure of 1.27M which was expected to be at 1.26M.

To sum it up, USD is holding the upper hand over GBP. The pair is expected to struggle to sustain the bearish pressure as weak economic reports and the dovish Fed's rhetoric may impact the upcoming gains.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading below 1.2500 with a daily close that is expected to push the price down towards 1.2350. Along the way, a retracement towards 1.2500 is expected before the bearish trend continues to dominate further in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.2500 area with a daily close, the strong bearish bias is expected to continue.

*Účelem zde zveřejněné analýzy trhu je zvýšení vašeho povědomí, nikoli dávání pokynů k obchodování.

Napsal Rocky Yaman,
Analytický expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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