15.03.201901:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. March 14th. Results of the day. The market continues to focus on the British Parliament

Dlouhodobá prognóza

4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 15.03.2019 analysis

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 117p - 118p - 228p - 284p - 319p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 213p (161p). The pound ended another fun day. For three days in a row, the GBP/USD pair was in a "stormy" state, the market has calmed down a bit for today, but it can still change, since the British Parliament will hold a third vote in the evening, this time on the issue of postponing the Brexit date. The most interesting thing to analyze in this situation, by and large, is nothing. The outcome of the first two polls was predicted with a 95% probability. The probability that the Parliament will approve the postponement of the exit from the EU by today and altogether is at 99%. Just because there are no other options. Nobody knows what will happen next. The situation is in a stalemate. Thus, the way out of it may be completely unexpected for everyone, since all the expected options have not brought in results. Thus, in the next few months, we can expect a repeated referendum, the formation of a new government, the dismissal of Theresa May, new negotiations with the EU, new statements by Juncker and other EU leaders to refuse to participate in new concessions to London. There are a lot of options, but now all this can be described only in one word - "chaos". To predict how the chaos will end is a thankless task. Therefore, the pound sterling is likely to continue to grow on hearsay and expectations, and could decline on frankly disappointing information. From a technical point of view, there is a new "golden cross" and a downward correction may begin. However, given the increased volatility and abrupt changes in the direction of movement in recent days, it is not recommended to rely on technical factors when making trading decisions.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair could start a new round of downward movement, but to trade on technique is still not feasible at the moment, since the results of today's voting could cause a super-crazy market reaction and a sharp reversal in the opposite direction. Therefore, the best option now is to wait for the end of all voting in the British Parliament.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.


A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

*Účelem zde zveřejněné analýzy trhu je zvýšení vašeho povědomí, nikoli dávání pokynů k obchodování.

Paolo Greco,
Analytický expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021
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