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The economic data published on Tuesday from the United States does not shine with certainty, which still does not allow investors to understand what their prospects in the monetary policy of the American regulator.

The presented values of the base retail sales index for June showed preservation of the growth rate of 0.4% against the expectation of its decline to 0.1%. At the same time, the annual values of the export price index fell more than expected of 1.6%, while for imports this decline was slightly less by only -2.0% against -2.1%. Although, by and large, it is still noticeably lower than last year's data of -1.5%.

On the wave of these data, the dollar started to add sharply to the major currencies but it should still be recognized not as much as it was, for example, in a pair of gray European currencies, it decreased by 50 points at the moment after the statistics were published. This was due to data from Germany.

The index of economic conditions from ZEW in Germany continued to fall in July, dropping to -24.5 points against the forecast of falling to 22.1 points and the previous June value of -21.1 points. Recall that the indicator is noticeably below zero for more than one year.

Back to the dynamics of the American currency, the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, commented on Tuesday in the background of the country's economy. He said that he sees a slowdown in economic growth, although he is still strong and uncertainties have grown. The dynamics of economic growth and inflation contribute to the expected decline in interest rates. He added that all of these are happening against the background of a weak manufacturing sector, rising consumer spending and a marked slowdown in investment growth. In addition to him, the theme of the prospects for interest rates in yesterday's comments touched upon Charles Evans said that he was waiting for a decrease in rates by 0.50%, as well as the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, who made it clear that he had not yet decided on the issue of interest rates. Meanwhile, the head of the Fed Dallas, Robert Kaplan is inclined to believe that lowering interest rates is justified.

In the wake of Powell and his colleagues' speeches, the strengthening of the dollar stopped and the US stock market received support in the belief that lowering rates this month would not be a one-time event.

Of the important statistics that will be published today, we highlight the values of consumer inflation in Britain, in the eurozone and Canada. As well as the number of building permits issued and the publication of the Beige Book in America, paired with the values of oil and petroleum products from the US Department of Energy.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair found support at 0.7010. If this mark resists, the pair will rush to 0.7100 when it breaks the level of 0.7040.

The GBP/USD pair is trading above 1.2400, remaining under strong pressure. On the Brexit theme, it will still remain central to Britain, which puts pressure on the local currency rate with its uncertainty. If it falls below the level of 1.2400, the pair will continue to fall to 1.2330.

Exchange Rates 17.07.2019 analysis

Exchange Rates 17.07.2019 analysis

*Účelem zde zveřejněné analýzy trhu je zvýšení vašeho povědomí, nikoli dávání pokynů k obchodování.

Napsal Pati Gani,
Analytický expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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