For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 125 points, as a result of overcoming the minimum of the current year. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the accumulation phase, after the corrective movement, has moved to the stage of the downward trend recovery, as a result of having a breakdown of the current year minimum of 1.2433. As written in the previous review, traders, after fixing the valley positions from the corrective movement, took a waiting position, analyzing a clear price fixation lower than 1.2500, where the primary bay was made in short positions. The tactic was quite successful. The first impulse made it possible to earn on the one-year low of 1.2433. The second bay in short positions was considered after fixing the price lower than 1.2430. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the clock basis (Impulse --- Correction) led us to the "Impulse" phase, thereby resuming the global downward trend. As I have repeatedly written in my reviews, the British currency is under great pressure and the update of the minimums of 2019 - 2018 --- 2017 ---- 2016 is not far off, but everything in due time, thereby working consistently and earning on this course.
The information and news background of the past day had statistics on Britain, where, as expected, the unemployment rate remained at the same, 3.8%, while the average wage, excluding and including the premium, rose to 3.6% and 3, 4% inclusive. The data in general in the UK was not bad, but it was not there, the pound flew back home, closing its eyes to all the positive statistics. What is the matter? Of course, in our favorite divorce process UK & EU. Once again, everyone remembered Brexit, and this time, there were several loud statements from both England and Brussels. Proud English knights in the person of former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and current Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt say that the EU must make concessions to the agreement. European Commission officials are preparing for the fact that discussions on Brexit will become more hostile under the new British government. More specifically, the EU is preparing for the prospect that Boris Johnson will become the Prime Minister, whom the European Union considers to be an unpopular populist. All of the above leads to the fact that no agreement has been found. Everyone will take their position and we will see an unsuccessful exit of Britain from the EU - Hard Brexit.
No wonder we have several months in a row we heard persistent emissions from the media regarding the outflow of investments from Britain. The clouds over the English currency are condensing more and more densely.
Finally, statistics from the United States, was published yesterday. Retail sales data came out better than expected, accelerating from 2.9% to 3.4% with a forecast of 3.0%. Against the background, the dollar continued its rapid growth.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on inflation in Britain, where it is expected to remain unchanged at 2.0%. In the afternoon, data will be released on the construction sector of the United States, where, in principle, also unchanged. Particular attention is paid to the information background, in the case of a regular release, criticism, or simply statements regarding Brexit.
United States 12:30 UTC+00 - Number of building permits issued (June): Prev. 1.299M ---> Forecast 1,300M
United States 12:30 UTC+00 - The volume of construction of new homes (June): Prev. 1.269M ---> Forecast of 1.261M
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote is fixed below the low of the current year, forming a platform for the regrouping of trading forces. Stagnation - a pullback against the background of overheating short positions, of course, is considered by traders, in terms of fluctuations 1.2390 / 1.2440. It is worth considering such a moment that it will not be an inertial move against the background of yesterday's breakdown of key value. This is already a question. As I wrote earlier, traders have already gone into short positions and are just considering the current points in terms of further refills.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:
- Positions to buy are considered in the case of an obvious technical correction, probably in the case of price fixing higher than 1.2440.
- Many have already positions for sale, and the current refilling will be considered if the inertial move continues.
Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short, intraday and medium term, retain a downward interest against the backdrop of the discharge of the British currency.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 17 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 38 points. It is likely to assume that in case of continuation of the inertial course, volatility may continue to grow. Otherwise, a stagnation.
Zones of resistance: 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300.
Support areas: 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction with daily adjustment
*Účelem zde zveřejněné analýzy trhu je zvýšení vašeho povědomí, nikoli dávání pokynů k obchodování.
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