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21.11.2019 01:51 PM
Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair – placement of trade orders (November 21)

The mirror level plays the role of a variable support point, how it can affect the current dynamics and whether it is worth waiting for acceleration - you will find answers to these and many other questions in the article.

From technical analysis, we see that the quote managed to work out the mirror level of 1.2885 with surgical accuracy at the time of the control convergence. So, the looped sideways move continues to attract the special attention of market participants, where the well-known theory of "history repeats itself" works as well as ever. Almost five weeks - that's how much our considerable side-channel 1.2770 / 1.3000 is formed, the boundaries and allowances of which are already ingrained in the minds of traders and seem to be signs when making trading operations. In turn, the dynamics of volatility continues to surprise everyone with extremely low indicators, which is 19 consecutive trading days, which is a rare occurrence for such a dynamic currency pair as the pound / dollar.

(Dynamics of daily candles from High to Low: 58 - 65 - 97 - 62 - 75 - 45 - 67 - 58 - 53 - 83 - 53 - 118 - 58 - 40 - 63 - 51 - 81- 59 - 43 points).

So, the question is brewing: how long will we see such a sluggish market and circulation within the given framework?

I believe that the quotation in the face of market participants is not yet ready for the campaign, and they do not have enough confidence in terms of information about the future. Thus, the nearest date for the revision of the plans is December 12, and to be more precise – the results of the parliamentary elections, which will help to answer burning questions. Work inside the flat formation continues, but the main trading positions will go beyond the specified boundaries.

Analyzing hourly the past day, I want to say that there was an activity, but, unfortunately, this is not so. The start of the European trading session brought us to the area of the mirror level of 1.2885, where the pivot point was found, and as a fact, there was a rebound of 40 points, and this ended the trading day.

As discussed in the previous review, many traders had short positions in the work from the area of 1.2930/1.2940, were partial and complete fixations of previously received profit began to occur within the mirror level of 1.2885. Further steps were considered relative to the mirror level, fixing below it with the preservation of the characteristic bearish mood did not happen.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), we see that the emotional component, which was at the limit at the time of the inertial course on October 10-21, has waned. Now, ambiguity is more important, which is trying to undermine confidence in the global downward trend.

The news background of the last day had no statistical data, but on the other hand, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee for Open Market Operations was published. So, based on the text of the protocol, the regulator is moderately satisfied with the current situation and believes that the level of economic activity will grow, the labor market will remain strong, and inflation will approach the mark of 2%.

The market reaction to the protocol was absent, the market was stagnant, and the time of publication was already in an inactive period.

The information background was rather moderate, many discussed the recent televised debates of Johnson and Corbyn, scaring themselves and everyone that Labor could win.

So, Jeremy Corbyn decided not to stop chasing the votes and once again accused the conservatives of hiding the facts of trade negotiations between Johnson and the United States, providing insider information on his Twitter page.

"If conservatives have nothing to hide in trade negotiations with the US, why can't they publish the documents in full? Under the Laborites, our NHS (National Health Service) will never be sold," twitter @jeremycorbyn.

Corbyn did not stop there and continued to attack the existing system. Now, the Labor Leader is unveiling a manifesto for Britain's angry bankers and billionaires. It says that he will declare war on the richest people in Britain and promise radical changes in the entire economy.

"If bankers, billionaires and the establishment think that we present politics as usual, that we can be bribed, that nothing really will change, they would not attack us so fiercely," Jerome Corbyn said.

In the manifesto, Corbyn promises to increase taxes that target only the rich while protecting everyone else. He will pledge to spend around 75 billion pounds ($97 billion) over five years on social housing and will pledge to invest 100 billion pounds in Scotland over the next decade.

In turn, Boris Johnson wrote in his Twitter that he would fulfill all promises and leave the European Union in time.

"Under my leadership, the conservatives will carry out Brexit, there will be an injection of capital in our public services, the crime problem will be solved, we will support our armed forces and our economy will strengthen", twitter @BorisJohnson.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, where there is no significant change: primary -6 thousand; repeated +2 thousand.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a local upward move from the mirror level of 1.2885, where market activity leaves much to be desired. So, there is an assumption that the pivot point of 1.2885 will lead to the fact that for a time a range between the values of 1.2885/1.3000 is formed, having a closed circuit. This formation will further concentrate the market ambiguity, where the already weak volatility will become even lower. So far this is only an assumption, but as a theory is actively considered.

Detailing the minute-by-minute movement, we see a weak upward move, where the activity is just beginning to manifest itself in the market.

In turn, traders are now out of the market, focusing particularly on the coordinates 1.2885/1.3000, working on momentum. Work in progress 1.2885 - 1.3000 is not conducted due to excessive risk

Having a general picture of the action, it is possible to assume that the oscillation within a narrow framework of 1.2885/1.3000 will not last as long, coming back to the dynamics of 1.2770/1.3000, where the downward movement will be considered if the mark of 1.2885 is passed, and long positions will occur in the case of a clear fixation rates higher than 1.3000, it needs a distinctive background.

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Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

  • Buy positions are considered in the event of a breakdown of the psychological level of 1.3000, not a puncture in the shadow of a candle.
  • Sales positions will resume after a clear price-fixing lower than 1.2885.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators turned upside down relative to all the time intervals. It is worth considering that in the case of confirmation of the theory of amplitude narrowing, the indicator analysis can dramatically change its mood.

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Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year.

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(November 21 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 24 points, which is a low indicator for this period. It is likely to assume that volatility will be at low values, where in the case of a breakdown of the mirror level, acceleration is possible but within the average value.

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Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.3000; 1.3170**; 1.3300**.

Support zones: 1.2885*; 1.2770**; 1.2700*; 1.2620; 1.2580*; 1.2500**; 1.2350**; 1.2205 (+/-10p.)*; 1.2150**; 1.2000***; 1.1700; 1.1475**.

* Periodic level

** Range level

*** The article is based on the principle of conducting transactions, with daily adjustments.

Gven Podolsky,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024
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