EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On March 27, the growth of the European currency continued. The upward trend line perfectly supports the "bullish" mood of traders. Thus, there are no prerequisites for the upward trend to end yet. All the most interesting events are now taking place in America. In Europe - no interesting performances, no interesting events. In America, the epidemic continues to spread, which forces the authorities to consider more and more restrictive measures for the population, as well as to consider additional measures to stimulate the economy. For example, Donald Trump believes that the country's economy may fall not just into a recession, but into a depression if America does not open the borders for business, and the population does not return to work. Thus, the US government regularly receives news that deserves attention. So far, they do not have a positive impact on the US currency.
EUR/USD – 4H.
According to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0964), turned in favor of the euro and resumed the growth process with consolidation above the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1065). At the time of writing, the pair's quotes have returned to the corrective level of 50.0%. Thus, the rebound from it on March 30 will work in favor of the EU currency again and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1167). Fixing the pair's exchange rate below the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to expect a slight fall in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0964). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the picture for the EUR/USD pair is identical to the picture on the 4-hour chart. The pair's movements in the last month and a half are very simple. They do not allow you to build a new trend line or corridor. Traders continue to wait for the markets to calm down, as the daily amplitude of the pair is very high. On the daily chart, the overall picture is seen a little better. The rebound of quotes from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pair has a high chance of continuing the growth process, since the breakdown of the lower border of the "narrowing triangle" turned out to be false. Thus, it can be considered a rebound, not a breakdown. In the future, the euro/dollar pair has the ability to perform growth to the level of 1.1600.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 27, there were few important economic reports in the US and the world. Changes in the levels of income and spending of the population in the United States and the consumer sentiment index did not cause any attention among traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
Germany - consumer price index (14:00 GMT).
On March 30, there will again be few important economic reports. Inflation in Germany is now not the news that can affect the pair, which passes by 100-200 points daily.
COT report (Commitments of Traders):
The new COT report is out! And I must say that it came out exactly as I expected. The total number of short-contracts decreased by 26,000 and long - by 19,000. In general, major market players who are trying to make money on exchange rate changes got rid of short-contracts. That is, speculators. However, companies that hedge their risks also closed short contracts, along with long contracts. Thus, the total number of contracts still remains in favor of short. Moreover, it is the hedgers who now have on their hands of the total volume of contracts. The upward prospects for the euro currency remain. And at this time, the euro/dollar pair may continue to grow strongly, or it may do so after a long correction.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
I recommend staying in the EUR/USD pair purchases until the quotes close below the trend line on the hourly chart. The goals are 1.1167 and 1.1294. I recommend opening sales of the euro currency after closing quotes under the trend line on the hourly chart since this line looks the most convincing right now. The goals are 1.0964 and 1.0840.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
