Here are the details of the economic calendar from June 16:
The most anticipated event of the week and even of the month took place yesterday. The results of the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve System became known and during which, the regulator pointed out the possibility of raising the interest rate in the future.
13 of the 18 members of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee were in favor of raising the rate by 2023 – two were in favor of raising it to 0.25-0.5%, three to 0.5-0.75%, another three to 0.75-1%, and then three again to 1-1. 25%, lastly, two-to 1.5-1.75%.
To simply put it, the course of the Fed's monetary policy will change soon, which many experts already expected. This was positively played by the market in terms of strengthening the value of the US dollar.
Analysis of trading charts from June 16:
The EUR/USD pair showed a rare speculative interest during the last trading day, during which the quote overcame more than 115 points on a downward trajectory in a short period of time. The results of the Fed meeting were the driver for the price changes.
From the point of view of technical analysis, a possible round of acceleration was indicated by the accumulation process in the range of 1.2114/1.2135, where market participants were waiting for the news to come out. The price's maximum deviation on June 15 in the face of the levels of 1.2100 and 1.2150 was used as the signal levels against which the market was entered. Based on the results, the level of 1.2100 was broken, where traders entered the market at the most optimal price, in terms of risks.
The trading recommendation on June 16 considered a possible acceleration, as well as the key levels of 1.2100/1.2150 for this time period. Selling positions for euros could bring at least 80 points, which is $ 80 with a transaction volume of 1 Installot.
Following the market, the GBP/USD pair showed a similar speculative interest, during which the quote fell by more than 100 points, eventually reaching the psychological level of 1.4000.
The trading recommendation on June 15 considered a downward movement towards the level of 1.4000, confirming our expectations.
Trading recommendation for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 17, 2021
Today, Europe's inflation data will be published, where consumer prices are expected to increase from 1.6% to 2.0%. It is worth considering that the level of 2.0% has already been confirmed by a preliminary assessment, thus confirming the data may not have the desired effect on the market.
EU Inflation – 9:00 Universal time
During the US trading session, weekly data on applications for America's unemployment benefits will be released, which is forecasted to further decline.
Applications reflect the number of citizens who are not currently working and receiving unemployment benefits. This indicator is considered the state of the labor market, where the growth of the indicator negatively affects the level of consumption and economic growth. The reduction in claims for benefits has a positive effect on the labor market.
Applications for American unemployment benefits – 12:30 Universal time
Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, one can see that the euro's downward interest will remain in the market, but the quote is still within the psychological level of 1.1950/1.2000/1.2050. In order for the downward trend cycle to extend to new levels, the quote must hold below the level of 1.1950 for an H4 time frame. Otherwise, the stagnation in the historical level of 1.2000 may develop into a technical pullback.
As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, we have an amplitude price fluctuation within the level of 1.4000, where the downward interest is still considered relevant, despite the local oversold status. To raise the volume of short positions (sell positions), the quote must hold below the level of 1.3950; or else, a local pullback is not excluded.
*Účelem zde zveřejněné analýzy trhu je zvýšení vašeho povědomí, nikoli dávání pokynů k obchodování.
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