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25.01.1300: RUB to edge lower amid geopolitical risks (Brent, USD/RUB).

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Shlédnutí:
Oil prices stabilized after a drop on Friday. There is still the risk of a correctional decline due to a number of negative factors. The ruble lost ground even despite higher oil prices and the tax payment period. Investors fear new sanctions against Russia in connection with the Navalny case. Governments of the European countries agreed to discuss the restrictions on Monday. Oil is extending gains today. Brent crude has again moved above 55 dollars per barrel, adding 0.6% in the day trade. WTI is following a similar trajectory. The North American crude was trading in positive territory at 52 dollars 60 cents per barrel.
However, the uptrend looks rather fragile. As soon as markets focus on negative factors, oil is likely to slip to the red. New downward pressure may push Brent below the level of 55 dollars a barrel. What is more, official data on crude inventories added to the pessimistic sentiment. According to the report from the EIA released on Friday, oil stockpiles in the US rose by 4.4 million barrels, while markets expected to see a decline. Besides, the number of active oil rigs in the country has also increased. Traders have to switch their attention back to the pandemic. Oil demand prospects are getting worse due to extended coronavirus restrictions. Thus, Israel announced it would cancel all air travel until late January. Moreover, renewed lockdowns in China have raised more worries. China is one of the biggest oil consumers in the world. In addition, the country is going to celebrate Lunar New Year which is usually associated with a boost in fuel demand. However, the imposed quarantine measures are sure to limit travelling and will definitely affect fuel consumption. Another factor to weigh on the prices is a possible increase of oil supply. The recent rally in the energy market may lead to higher production volumes in the US and the OPEC countries. This can result in excess supply. Given the negative background, oil bears are likely to take control over the market in the short term. Global market sentiment is moderately positive today. Markets attempt to rebound after a recent fall. However, this factor, along with the expected consolidation in oil prices and a rise in emerging market currencies, did not support the ruble. The morning session turned out to be quite volatile. The Russian currency tried to advance against the US dollar, but could not withstand the pressure from geopolitical factors. As a result, the dollar/ruble pair returned to the 75.00 area. In the near future, the situation in the global and energy markets may worsen. In this case, the greenback will try to win back its previous losses. This week, the dollar/ruble pair may test a strong resistance level at 76.00. The range between 75.0 and 77.5 will stay relevant in the coming sessions. If the ruble manages to hold at 75.5 in the next two days, it will get a chance for a rebound until the end of the week. Notably, the pair closed the session on Friday, having reached its local yearly high of 75.3. The ruble has been affected by geopolitical risks associated with the detention of Alexei Navalny and protests that spread across the country. Any destabilizing situation in Russia serves as strong downward pressure for the ruble. What is more, a massive sell-off in the federal loan bonds happened last week. This is a clear sign that investors are fleeing from the Russian assets.

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